History's End

Why I haven't been blogging lately...

2007-01-03T10:46:00.000-08:00

A partial answer to the question of why I haven't blogged for close to two months may be found in this post, by Josh Manchester. (Hat tip Instapundit)

The Blues

2006-11-08T13:25:00.000-08:00

I don't have them at the moment, but I am sure there are many Republicans out there who do have them. As far as elections go, this seems to be a fairly typical mid-term election. The President's party lost a number of seats in both houses, so now the Democrat control Congress.

I don't expect impeachment, but I do expect lots of investigations.

The Gift that Keeps on Giving...

2006-10-31T18:49:00.000-08:00

... you know who I am talking about. Karl Rove doesn't need to have a super-secret election strategy. All he needs to do is let the Democrats open their mouths.

As for my lack of blogging lately, I have been trying to stay away from my computer as much as possible. Like TigerHawk, blogging hasn't me keep in shape.

Tremors

2006-10-18T12:22:00.000-07:00

Apparently the North Korean's don't like to do things in halves. I would be surprised if the actually tested 3 more weapons. From what I understand, they don't have enough fissile material for more than 8 or so bombs. So testing half their possible inventory seems a bit much. This could indicate several things:

1) The North Korean's have access to a lot more fissile material than we knew about. This would be bad.

2) Some, or all, of the bombs being tested are not North Korean, but Iranian. This would be bad.

3) The North Korean's know they won't be attacked unless they attack first, so they set off bombs in order to get attention, and thus increase the blackmail they intend to extort. Not quite so bad. I actually think at this point that ignoring the NorKors might be the best option.

Thoughts for the Day...

2006-10-17T22:47:00.000-07:00

I have been busy lately, blogging has suffered naturally. Some thoughts for today:

Reports that North Korea may be getting ready to test another nuclear weapon indicate two things to me: either their first test was considered a failure and the loss of another bomb in a successful test is considered worthwhile, or perhaps they are testing a bomb of a different type. The first weapon was apparently plutonium based, while the next one might be uranium based.

It appears that Wesley Snipe's movie career is over. At least in this country. I guess with his career never reaching meteoric heights, he decided to make the most of what little he had... oops.

Karl Rove seems pretty confident (Hat Tip: Drudge). I wonder if he is merely counting on the Democratic Party's impulse to snatch defeat from the Jaws of Victory, or whether the GOP has its own October surprise ready to smash aside the Foley scandal. At this point, my money is on the former.

Digital content is going to be a major source of legal contests in the future, with Battlestar Galactica the latest case. Expect the fight between TV and Internet content to pick up. Smart companies should see a major market waiting to be exploited, if they handle their cards right.

Unlike this scientist, I think that trying to guess what humanity will look like in 1000 years is probably a waste of time. However, if humanity does survive until then, and assuming we haven't experienced another Dark Ages, I do rather expect that cheap bio-sculpting will make it much easier for people to match genetically determined "ideal sexual specifications." One would hope that when everyone can become beautiful, personality will finally become the primary determinant in relationships.

Earthquake

2006-10-08T20:00:00.000-07:00

Literally, it refers to a shift in the status of the Earth's continental plates. Figuratively, it refers to another shift, one not related to geology, but a shift non-the-less. There are now reports that North Korea tested a nuclear weapon this weekend. The link can be found here. Expect that, if the rumors prove true, the Foley issue will be considered markedly less significant in the week ahead.

Update: A lot of different sources are reporting this now. I think its a >90% at this point.

Update 2: The NorKs are claiming that they did, in fact, test a nuclear weapon, and that it was a test. This with South Korea picking up a seismic event.

Second Dawn

2006-10-06T16:35:00.000-07:00

Well, rumors are circulating that North Korea will test a nuclear weapon this weekend. I don't know how accurate these rumors are, but if true, I think its indicative of one of two things:

1) North Korea's threats thus far have been unsuccessful, and because no one takes them seriously enough, they have decided to be even more provacative.

2) Iran and North Korea are working together, and this test is actually a test of an Iranian weapon, and not a North Korean one. I believe that someone at Winds of Change, perhaps Trent, suggested that before.

I am inclinded towards the first course of action, with a twist. North Korea might be trying to distract attention away from Iran right now. The two might be working together in a more subtle way than a bomb test for Iran.

As the saying goes...

2006-10-04T15:02:00.000-07:00

...absence makes the heart grow fonder. Of course, I meant to post that I would be take a roughly month long sabbatical, but a flight time change left me unable to do so. Sorry for those of you who occassionally checked in. And thanks to anyone who might have actually worried.

Not Surprised, but Saddened

2006-09-04T11:24:00.000-07:00

Steven Irwin is dead. I am sure that most readers of this blog, all dozen of you or so, have heard of this already. The title echoes my thoughts exactly. Deep down, I always suspected this would happen, yet am sad all the same. Steve has children, and I really think it would have behooven him to keep them in mind, and take a little less risk in order to ensure that he will be there for them. Now they will grow up without a father. For all the wonders and joys of the natural world, Steve will miss seeing his children grow up, his daughter graduate High School and College, and will not be there to hand his daugher off at her wedding. In his death, remember what he missed, and try to take a lesson from this all: Whatever opportunities you may not want to miss in life, those of family top the list.

The Great Battle of Our Time

2006-09-03T16:40:00.000-07:00

Glenn Reynolds has tipped me off to this article by Walid Phares. In short, it covers the recent message from an American member of Al Qaeda to various people's and groups around the world. Rather than quote from part of it, read the whole thing. I intend to go over it again, and try to compose some thoughts based on what it said, synthesized with some of my own thoughts and those of others.

A Frenchman who Gets it

2006-08-30T14:59:00.000-07:00

Courtesy of the Corner, here is an interview of Algerian-born Frenchman Pierre Rehov, produced in full:

Q - What inspired you to produce "Suicide Killers," your seventh film?

A - I started working with victims of suicide attacks to make a film on PTSD (Post Traumatic Stress Disorder) when I became fascinated with the personalities of those who had committed those crimes, as they were described again and again by their victims. Especially the fact that suicide bombers are all smiling one second before they blow themselves up.

Q - Why is this film especially important?

A - People don't understand the devastating culture behind this unbelievable phenomenon. My film is not politically correct because it addresses the real problem, showing the real face of Islam. It points the finger against a culture of hatred in which the uneducated are brainwashed to a level where their only solution in life becomes to kill themselves and kill others in the name of a God whose word, as transmitted by other men, has become their only certitude.

Q - What insights did you gain from making this film? What do you know that other experts do not know?

A - I came to the conclusion that we are facing a neurosis at the level of an entire civilization. Most neuroses have in common a dramatic event, generally linked to an unacceptable sexual behavior. In this case, we are talking of kids living all their lives in pure frustration, with no opportunity to experience sex, love, tenderness or even understanding from the opposite sex. The separation between men and women in Islam is absolute. So is contempt toward women, who are totally dominated by men. This leads to a situation of pure anxiety, in which normal behavior is not possible. It is no coincidence that suicide killers are mostly young men dominated subconsciously by an overwhelming libido that they not only cannot satisfy but are afraid of, as if it is the work of the devil.

Since Islam describes heaven as a place where everything on Earth will finally be allowed, and promises 72 virgins to those frustrated kids, killing others and killing themselves to reach this redemption becomes their only solution.

Q - What was it like to interview would-be suicide bombers, their families and survivors of suicide bombings?

A - It was a fascinating and a terrifying experience. You are dealing with seemingly normal people with very nice manners who have their own logic, which to a certain extent can make sense since they are so convinced that what they say is true. It is like dealing with pure craziness, like interviewing people in an asylum, since what they say, is for them, the absolute truth. I hear a mother saying "Thank God, my son is dead." Her son had became a shaheed, a martyr, which for her was a greater source of pride than if he had became an engineer, a doctor or a winner of the Nobel Prize.

This system of values works completely backwards since their interpretation of Islam worships death much more than life. You are facing people whose only dream, only achievement goal is to fulfill what they believe to be their destiny, namely to be a Shaheed or the family of a shaheed.

They don't see the innocent being killed, they only see the impure that they have to destroy.

Q - You say suicide bombers experience a moment of absolute power, beyond punishment. Is death the ultimate power?

A - Not death as an end, but death as a door opener to the after life. They are seeking the reward that God has promised them. They work for God, the ultimate authority, above all human laws. They therefore experience this single delusional second of absolute power, where nothing bad can ever happen to them, since they become God's sword.

Q - Is there a suicide bomber personality profile? Describe the psychopathology.

A - Generally kids between 15 and 25 bearing a lot of complexes, generally inferiority complexes. They must have been fed with religion. They usually have a lack of developed personality. Usually they are impressionable idealists. In the western world they would easily have become drug addicts, but not criminals. Interestingly, they are not criminals since they don't see good and evil the same way that we do. If they had been raised in an Occidental culture, they would have hated violence. But they constantly battle against their own death anxiety. The only solution to this deep-seated pathology is to be willing to die and be rewarded in the afterlife in Paradise.

Q - Are suicide bombers principally motivated by religious conviction?

A - Yes, it is their only conviction. They don't act to gain a territory or to find freedom or even dignity. They only follow Allah, the supreme judge, and what He tells them to do.

Q - Do all Muslims interpret jihad and martyrdom in the same way?

A - All Muslim believers believe that, ultimately, Islam will prevail on earth. They believe this is the only true religion and there is no room, in their mind, for interpretation. The main difference between moderate Muslims and extremists is that moderate Muslims don't think they will see the absolute victory of Islam during their lifetime, therefore they respect other beliefs. The extremists believe that the fulfillment of the Prophecy of Islam and ruling the entire world as described in the Koran, is for today. Each victory of Bin Laden convinces 20 million moderate Muslims to become extremists.

Q - Describe the culture that manufactures suicide bombers.

A - Oppression, lack of freedom, brain washing, organized poverty, placing God in charge of daily life, total separation between men and women, forbidding sex, giving women no power whatsoever, and placing men in charge of family honor, which is mainly connected to their women's behavior.

Q - What socio-economic forces support the perpetuation of suicide bombings?

A - Muslim charity is usually a cover for supporting terrorist organizations. But one has also to look at countries like Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Iran, which are also supporting the same organizations through different networks. The ironic thing in the case of Palestinian suicide bombers is that most of the money comes through financial support from the Occidental world, donated to a culture that utterly hates and rejects the West (mainly symbolized by Israel).

Q - Is there a financial support network for the families of the suicide bombers? If so, who is paying them and how does that affect the decision?

A - There used to be a financial incentive in the days of Saddam Hussein ($25,000 per family) and Yasser Arafat (smaller amounts), but these days are gone. It is a mistake to believe that these families would sacrifice their children for money. Although, the children themselves who are very attached to their families, might find in this financial support another reason to become suicide bombers. It is like buying a life insurance policy and then committing suicide.

Q - Why are so many suicide bombers young men?

A - As discussed above, libido is paramount. Also ego, because this is a sure way to become a hero. The shaheeds are the cowboys or the firemen of Islam. Shaheed is a positively reinforced value in this culture. And what kid has never dreamed of becoming a cowboy or a fireman?

Q - What role does the U.N. play in the terrorist equation?

A - The U.N. is in the hands of Arab countries and third world or ex-communist countries. Their hands are tied. The U.N. has condemned Israel more than any other country in the world, including the regime of Castro, Idi Amin or Kaddahfi. By behaving this way, the U.N. leaves a door open by not openly condemning terrorist organizations. In addition, through UNRWA, the U.N. is directly tied to terror organizations such as Hamas, representing 65 percent of their apparatus in the so-called Palestinian refugee camps. As a support to Arab countries, the U.N. has maintained Palestinians in camps with the hope to "return" into Israel for more than 50 years, therefore making it impossible to settle those populations, which still live in deplorable conditions. Four hundred million dollars are spent every year, mainly financed by U.S. taxes, to support 23,000 employees of UNRWA, many of whom belong to terrorist organizations (see Congressman Eric Cantor on this subject, and in my film "Hostages of Hatred").

Q - You say that a suicide bomber is a 'stupid bomb and a smart bomb' simultaneously. Explain what you mean.

A - Unlike an electronic device, a suicide killer has until the last second the capacity to change his mind. In reality, he is nothing but a platform representing interests which are not his, but he doesn't know it.

Q - How can we put an end to the madness of suicide bombings and terrorism in general?

A - Stop being politically correct and stop believing that this culture is a victim of ours. Radical Islamism today is nothing but a new form of Naziism. Nobody was trying to justify or excuse Hitler in the 1930s. We had to defeat him in order to make peace one day with the German people.

Q - Are these men traveling outside their native areas in large numbers? Based on your research, would you predict that we are beginning to see a new wave of suicide bombings outside the Middle East?

A - Every successful terror attack is considered a victory by the radical Islamists. Everywhere Islam expands there is regional conflict. Right now, there are thousands of candidates for martyrdom lining up in training camps in Bosnia, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Inside Europe, hundreds of illegal mosques are preparing the next step of brain washing to lost young men who cannot find a satisfying identity in the Occidental world. Israel is much more prepared for this than the rest of the world will ever be. Yes, there will be more suicide killings in Europe and the U.S. Sadly, this is only the beginning.

Pierre, probably because of his Algerian origin, understand what it is that the West is facing. If I get time, I intend to go over this more thoroughly, and try to expand on some thoughts within. By the way, the full interview can be found here.

A Friendly Press...

2006-08-26T12:09:00.000-07:00

...goes a long way. The fact that the story in question is CNN's main story at the moment, surely a coincidence, right? They would do a similar thing for a right-of-center Senator, wouldn't they? Here is the screenshot for posterity:

edit: Blogger appears to be having some problems with image uploads.

Al Qaeda in Gaza?

2006-08-24T14:42:00.000-07:00

Rusty Shackleford at the Jawa Report has some disturbing information vis-a-vis the kidnapped Fox reporters. My gut tells me that they are probably going to die. I sincerely hope I am wrong.

The "C" Word

2006-08-22T15:23:00.000-07:00

Courtesy of Colt over at WindsofChange, here is an article from Israeli Insider. It examines the faults and cracks exposed by Israel's campaign against Hizb'allah. While the whole thing is worth reading, here is perhaps the most important part:

Some senior officers have been mentioning the C-word in private conversations. They have been saying that a coup d'etat might be the only way to prevent an outcome in Lebanon that could embolden the Arab world to join forces with Syria and Iran in an all out assault on Israel, given the fact that such a development would be spurred entirely by the Arab and Moslem world's perception of Israel's leadership as weak, craven and vacillating, and therefore ripe for intimidation.

Israel, like most Western nations, has long adhered to the concept of civilian control of the military. If members of the Israeli military are actually talking about overthrowing the government, then I imagine that things are probably worse than they seem. All of this comes out from a post by Trent Telenko, which discuses the IDF's status as a "hollow military." The comments are worth reading, because its seems that a lot of the problems are the result of incompetence and corruption inside the ranks of Israel's elites, a corruption that crosses all party lines. This has been apparent for a while now, and is perhaps one reason why Yoni is attempting to create a new Israeli political party.

Its clear that there are some serious problems with the IDF at the moment, and Israel needs to address them, and quickly. Hopefully the fact that this conflict came about when it did, and not later, gives Israel the time it needs to fix its military before Iran goes nuclear.

For the End of the World...

2006-08-22T14:15:00.000-07:00

... its not that bad. This is one instance where I am not displeased that I am disappointed. Hopefully the Iranian regime will continue to disappoint.

Preparing for the Next War...

2006-08-21T15:42:00.000-07:00

... and not the last. That is the advice that Yoni is presenting to the Israeli Government with his latest post. Whether or not that advice will be taken up by the Olmert government remains to be seen. Personally, based on their displayed competence thus far, the chances are slim. Whether or not the conflit between Hizb'allah and Israel heats up again, which is something I expect to be near 100% certainty, the advice is solid. Training is something that is often cut first, before other parts of the defense budget, but is actually the most critical. While flashy gadgets may look good before committee and before cameras, training is what saves lives at the end of the day, and ensures victory. This appears to be something that the Israeli's have forgotten.

The End of Days?

2006-08-21T15:13:00.000-07:00

Tomorrow is August 22nd. That day is a day of significance for Shi'ite Islam, as this ABC news article explains:

This year, August 22 marks the holy day on the Islamic calendar that is the day of reckoning for Shiites. Some Shiite sects believe that August 22 could correspond to the end of the world. And just today, after much hype, Iran has announced that it will continue to develop its nuclear program. To followers of Iranian President Ahmadinejad, this is a well-timed affront to Israel, the United States and the world. The United Nations had given Iran until the end of the month to respond, but Ahmadinejad had made it clear to all Iranians and the world that he intended to respond on the eve of August 22.

I find it interesting, and possibly even good, that something of this nature is covered by ABC, and not treated with outright scorn in the process. Robert Spencer of JihadWatch gets some coverage later on in the piece. He is worried about the date. And so is Bernard Lewis:

In Islam, as in Judaism and Christianity, there are certain beliefs concerning the cosmic struggle at the end of time--Gog and Magog, anti-Christ, Armageddon, and for Shiite Muslims, the long awaited return of the Hidden Imam, ending in the final victory of the forces of good over evil, however these may be defined. Mr. Ahmadinejad and his followers clearly believe that this time is now, and that the terminal struggle has already begun and is indeed well advanced. It may even have a date, indicated by several references by the Iranian president to giving his final answer to the U.S. about nuclear development by Aug. 22. This was at first reported as "by the end of August," but Mr. Ahmadinejad's statement was more precise.
What is the significance of Aug. 22? This year, Aug. 22 corresponds, in the Islamic calendar, to the 27th day of the month of Rajab of the year 1427. This, by tradition, is the night when many Muslims commemorate the night flight of the prophet Muhammad on the winged horse Buraq, first to "the farthest mosque," usually identified with Jerusalem, and then to heaven and back (c.f., Koran XVII.1). This might well be deemed an appropriate date for the apocalyptic ending of Israel and if necessary of the world. It is far from certain that Mr. Ahmadinejad plans any such cataclysmic events precisely for Aug. 22. But it would be wise to bear the possibility in mind.

Perhaps nothing will come of this day. However, I must admit that my sleep this night will be less sure than it has been in the past. I know to be wary of arbitrary dates, as so many have come and gone without anything happening. However, what is different about this date, about this "last day", is that isn't just something that happens, but rather occurs as a result of human actions. Its an apocalypse that is brought about by human, and not divine intervention. This is, to me at least, somewhat more worrisome. Whether my worries, however slight, are justified remains to be seen.

Craven

2006-08-20T21:17:00.000-07:00

Charles at LGF exposes the true intent of the Cease-fire push by European states: Improving their image in the Islamic world.

Once again, we see the French in action. I don't think that there is a more selfish nation out there. There is no French word for procrastination, you know. Its because its part of their national policy, has been since the days before WWII. They keep hoping to feed others to the crocodile first, hoping that they will buy enough time for themselves to live off their Swiss bank accounts on some tropical island somewhere after having retired and left Europe to fend for itself.

Mirror on the Wall

2006-08-20T21:04:00.000-07:00

Tigerhawk has a small exerpt from Ralph Peter's new book up on his site, concerning the various problems that are currently plaguing the Middle East, and the Islamic world in general. Worth checking out.

Iranian War Games?

2006-08-16T18:15:00.000-07:00

Courtesy of PJM, here is a report of Iranian war games planned for later this week. Does later this week include August 22nd? Perhaps Iran is merely intending to show off some new weapon or another, or perhaps something else is planned. Either way, the fact that the Iranian military is going to be active around that date is slightly worrisome.

Determining Who Won... by Firing First

2006-08-16T13:53:00.000-07:00

The Cease Fire that exists now between Hizb'allah and Israel is at best tentative. It may not hold for very long, and I doubt there will be too many who will be surprised if it does break. However, the timing of its end is useful to the question of who won the latest round of fighting between Israel and Hizb'allah.

I believe that the timing of the violation of the cease-fire, as well as who breaks it, will reveal just who thinks that they won the latest round.

If Hizb'allah lost, or thinks it lost, the recent fight with Israel, then it is not going to break the cease-fire in the short-term. Or rather, its going to abstain from actions which will prompt Israel to declare the cease-fire dead. After all, what does Hizb'allah hope to gain from further fighting if it thinks it lost the latest round? Nothing has really changed since the cease-fire went into place. It hasn't received substantial reinforcements or resupply. It has lost hundreds of fighters, considerable amounts of equipment, and much of its infrastructure. What advantage is there to bringing on more of the same? On the other hand, if Hizb'allah thinks that it won the war, then it might very well have an incentive to end the cease-fire sooner rather than later. That way Israel won't have the time it needs to change is operational directives, along with political leadership. If the latest exchange was seen as beneficial, then Hizb'allah probably will benefit from keeping it going.

What about Israel? Well, if Israel came out behind in the recent exchange, then it will also likely abstain from further action, at least for the time being. The Israeli leadership will want to go over what went wrong, and take the time to set about fixing any problems to their strategy and tactics, as well as increase training if needed. However, if the Israeli leadership thinks that maybe things weren't going so bad as they seem, then it might be beneficial to to go after Hizb'allah again sooner rather than later. So why the short break in fighting then? I mean, if the Israeli's think that they won, why accept the cease-fire? Well, it will take a while for Hizb'allah to fully replace its loses, both men and materiale. Meanwhile, the Israeli military can go over how the fight went, and put into place changes in doctrine fairly quickly. They can also use the time to shift troops around, give the IDF soldiers time to rest, and can probably go back in before Hizb'allah manages to recover significantly, much less partially.

Of course, that is all conjecture. Once again, its entirely possible that both sides come to the conclusion that they lost. Remember, when there is no clear cut victory, perception is everything.

Round One is Over... When Does Round Two Begin?

2006-08-15T21:42:00.000-07:00

Right now the blogosphere is debating whether or not Hizb'allah or Israel won the recent fight between them. This is the wrong debate to be having at this time. Victory has been achieved by neither side, because this fight is not over. What we are witnessing is a boxing match between Israel and Hizb'allah. Round One is now over. The cease-fire is simply the bell announcing a short break. Both are retiring to their respective corners. Any notion that the region is now at peace is simply naive. We are merely witnessing a pause between the fighting, a pause that I would wager both sides support... for the time being.

At this moment I am sure that the leaders of Hizb'allah and Israel, along with their coaches (Syria and Iran for Hizb'allah, the United States for Israel), are examining the first round to see what they did right, what they did wrong, and who came out ahead. There is no clear cut victory here, despite what some may say. Rather, both parties must compare any gains they may have made to the losses they received, and try and judge whether or not it was worth it. Remember, that this judgement is all about perception. It is entirely possible that both may come to the conclusion that they "won" this exchange, or both could think that they have lost.

How do they judge their status, and who came out ahead? Well, there are really three major areas touched by this conflict: military, economic and political. I will address the military aspect to a small degree.

Militarily, it is tough to say that Israel lost. It suffered relatively light losses among its soldiers, around a hundred or so. Hizb'allah's losses are probably at least five times that amount, if not more. Israel's military is not sufficiently degraded from the fighting, its losses, compared to the strength with which it entered the fight, are negligible. What about Hizb'allah though? A loss of five hundred or so fighters hurts that organization more than it hurts Israel. Its strength varies, from a few thousand fighters to perhaps ten thousand. There is also the loss of hardware, especially rockets and their launchers.

As for who was ahead in economic and political strength, I will resolve that later as I get the time.

What is it that "They" Said?

2006-08-14T14:20:00.000-07:00

Something along the lines of "The Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity." Well, they apparently didn't want to miss an opportunity, so they kidnapped a FoxNews reporter. Mary Ham, blogging at Michelle Malkin's site looks like she will keep this story up to date.

As I think on it, this is probably something done by a bunch of "freelancers", for want of a better word. These are most likely common criminals who saw a chance to get some quick and easy cash, and didn't think about the political impact this might have. I wouldn't be shocked for the reporters to be released fairly quickly, Hamas wants to avoid as much bad press as it can right now.

The Phony War

2006-08-14T14:02:00.000-07:00

Then... and Now.

Standing One Leg Short

2006-08-14T09:46:00.000-07:00

Anyone want to take odds on how long the "cease-fire" between Israel and Lebanon(Hizb'allah) will hold? I am pegging it at perhaps a week. Maybe 8 days.

Heart of Darkness

2006-08-10T23:42:00.000-07:00

Grim at Blackfive looks deep into the abyss, and what stares back is terrifying.

I am going to quickly find and re-read my copy of Joseph Conrad's Heart of Darkness, as I feel it speaks to this.

Reuters... Rotten to the Core?

2006-08-09T23:45:00.000-07:00

Courtesy of Pajamas Media, here is a link to a Reuters article about the breaking story concerning a major terror bust in England.

You just have to love how they snuck this in:

British Prime Minister Tony Blair has come under strong criticism at home and abroad for following the U.S. lead and refusing to call for an immediate ceasefire in the conflict between Israel and Lebanese Hizbollah guerrillas.

Biased, don't ya think?

Laugh of the Day

2006-08-08T16:13:00.000-07:00

Courtesy of the Corner, I bring you today's guaranteed laugh creation instrument.

Unsurprising Headline of the Day

2006-08-08T16:06:00.000-07:00

U.S. - French Alliance at the U.N. Reportedly Crumbling

As bad as the US record for diplomacy goes, the French are far worse. It would be hard to find a more selfish nation on the international level than the Republique Francaise.

Its All About the Oil... No, Really!

2006-08-05T18:23:00.000-07:00

Courtesy of Rampuple, I bring you this:

Is there a relationship between the bombing of Lebanon and the inauguration of the World's largest strategic pipeline, which will channel more than a million barrels of oil a day to Western markets?

Virtually unnoticed, the inauguration of the Ceyhan-Tblisi-Baku (BTC) oil pipeline, which links the Caspian sea to the Eastern Mediterranean, took place on the 13th of July, at the very outset of the Israeli sponsored bombings of Lebanon.

One day before the Israeli air strikes, the main partners and shareholders of the BTC pipeline project, including several heads of State and oil company executives were in attendance at the port of Ceyhan. They were then rushed off for an inauguration reception in Istanbul, hosted by Turkey's President Ahmet Necdet Sezer in the plush surroundings of the Çýraðan Palace.

It just keeps on getting better and better.

The bombing of Lebanon is part of a carefully planned and coordinated military road map. The extension of the war into Syria and Iran has already been contemplated by US and Israeli military planners. This broader military agenda is intimately related to strategic oil and oil pipelines. It is supported by the Western oil giants which control the pipeline corridors. In the context of the war on Lebanon, it seeks Israeli territorial control over the East Mediterranean coastline.

And if you are wondering, why yes, the guy who wrote this, a Canadian, is named Michel Chossudovsky, and is most certainly a conspiracy nutcase. In fact, he wrote a conspiracy book on 9/11. Expect to see more on this soon.

Oh, and by the way, he conventienly forgets that it was Hizb'allah, and not Israel, that started this. I know, I know, Quel Surprise!

All the News that is Fit To Photoshop

2006-08-05T16:29:00.000-07:00

Courtesy of LGF, here is a picture from Reuters of Beruit "on fire".

Notice anything funky? Well Charles did. Put me in the category of those who thinks this looks like a photoshop job. I am reminded of the original Command & Conquer, in which arch-terrorist Kane used media manipulation to achieve his goals. However, Kane has to hire people to do this work for him. I suspect that Hizb'allah gets all of this for free.

Update: Ace has apparently entered the fray. And there is more at LGF as well.

What is Israel Doing?

2006-08-04T16:15:00.000-07:00

Israel has bombed pretty much every route out of Beruit now. Why now? Why not before? What exactly are they hoping to achieve here? Taking out infrastructure like this is only useful if you exploit the opportunities it presents, and I have seen nothing to indicate this is the case yet. So what exactly do the Israelis think they are doing? What is their game plan? I am starting to think they are playing this by ear, and botching it.

Frustration

2006-08-03T17:50:00.000-07:00

I have been trying to get a decent post together about what is happening in Lebanon and the Middle East in general, but am having serious writer's block.

Bomb Blackout

2006-08-01T19:13:00.000-07:00

Apparently the British are enforcing a news blackout on arms shipments to Israel from the US.

Hat Tip: PJM

Deep Strike Into the Bekka Valley

2006-08-01T19:12:00.000-07:00

A helicopter raid into the Bekka Valley by the IDF took place earlier today. Both YNet and Haaretz have info. A couple of important points to make:

1) Hizb'allah's stock of SAMs must be fairly low, otherwise Israel probably wouldn't have launched this attack. Choppers, especially transport ones, are fairly vulnerable to MANPADs, and thus Hizb'allah must have been felt to have possessed few, or had lost the few it had. No word yet on any Israeli helo losses.

2) This attack was apparently aimed to capture/kidnap a major Hizb'allah official. The fact that they aimed to capture him indicates that either Israel hoped to trade him for their kidnapped soldiers, or to pry him for information. Could be both

3) This was a high risk operation. A lot could have gone wrong, and casualties could have been high. Israel's talk about exanding the ground war doesn't seem to be bluster, they seem to have the political will to continue on and press harder.

4) This operation could also have been a quasi-training mission, as preparation/practice for the possible rescue of the two kidnapped Israeli soldiers, though I find that unlikely.

Fidel is Dead

2006-07-31T19:10:00.000-07:00

Via CNN, this headline:

Cuban President Fidel Castro is transferring power provisionally to brother Raul while he undergoes an operation, Cuban TV announces.

As far as I know, Fidel has never handed power over like this. I can only conclude the reason for this "power transfer" is to put Raul in charge while still keeping the semblance of Fidel being alive. He will need to secure his own position before revealing his brother's death.

Update: 10:00 EST, still nothing new to report. I think that he is dead or dying, considering that 'his' statements are being read by a secretary.

The War to End All Wars

2006-07-31T12:38:00.000-07:00

It looks like a Civil War is looming in Lebanon once Israel leaves. The Mad Mullahs have a lot to pay for.

Information is the Weapon

2006-07-30T20:36:00.000-07:00

The Target? Israel. Go and read.

I would bet good money that the "civil defense worker" who is pictured so often is in fact a member of Hizb'allah, or at the very least, an active supporter. Once again, we see either extreme incompetence on the part of the media, or active cooperation with evil.

hat tip: LGF

Update: here the updated post. Notice who is also in the picture from '96? Why, that same Civil Defense Worker. Coincidence? I should think not. The man is surely a member of Hizb'allah, perhaps one of the local leaders.

The Ultimate Armor...

2006-07-30T18:04:00.000-07:00

...schools and homes. The sheer evil of this is simply staggering.

Perhaps the only thing more staggering is that they were convinced it would work, because they could trust the media to be too stupid to catch on, or more than willing to cover it up for them.

Precious Resources

2006-07-28T18:45:00.000-07:00

Wretchard's latest post examines the issue of a temporary cease fire, and what usefullness it might provide. His conclusions:

All children, elderly men, women and identifiable noncombatants should be given safe passage out of the area after passing a security checkpoint to be jointly manned by the UNIFIL and the IDF. Any individual who is suspected of being a combatant can be placed in joint custody and removed to a detention facility inspected by the Red Cross or some similar institution. He will remain there until his any doubts over his status can be resolved.
The UN should establish a refugee processing camp on the cleared side of the security checkpoint where food, water, medical attention etc can be provided to whoever needs it. It should be the policy of the UN to temporarily evacuate the combat zone to prevent further loss of life, in accordance with the principle that populations should be removed from the path of natural or manmade disasters whenever possible and returned only when it is safe.

In short, use a ceasefire to get all of the civilians out of the way. Sure, Hizb'allah will be able to dig in, and probably resupply, reorganize and rest. However, the Israeli's can use the opportunity to help themselves politically, if not militarily. This plan is moot, of course, because Hizb'allah has found that civilians are a precious resource for them. Not to keep alive, or to protect, but to die at the hands of the Israelis. I doubt, and Wretchard doubts, that Hizb'allah will let this resource go.

Much Ado...

2006-07-24T21:06:00.000-07:00

Well, Condi has arrived in the Region... but so far, nothing has happened. I am not terribly surprised at that. I think that so far, Iran still has the initiative in this conflict, and it will take something dramatic or drastic to change that. Right now an idea that is rather popular that is being thrown about is to try and "turn" Syria away from the Iranian camp. TigerHawk has done an excellent job covering that debate. My own take is that if we can "turn" Syria, and use that to crush Hizb'allah, then its well worth it. Iran is our true foe here, not Syria. We can deal with Assad and his cronies once the Mullahs have been dealt with.

The Bekka Valley

2006-07-23T12:33:00.000-07:00

Hello, if you are reading this then in all likelihood you haev been directed here by Google or another search engine. As my site has been put near the top of hits for "Bekka Valley" by Google, I have decided to try and help them out in this regard. Due to the nature of the name, Bekka Valley can be spelled multiple ways. Either Bekaa Valley, or Bekkaa Valley, or even Bequaa Valley, depending on the language of the translator, and their personal inclination. All, however, describe the same place. Below you will find some links, as well as some content, about the Bekka Valley.

Here is a link that takes you to a map of Lebanon which includes the Bekka Valley. This map is somewhat more cluttered, but gives you a better idea of the the distances involved.

The Bekka Valley is a valley between two sets of mountains, the Lebanon Mountains, which are fully inside Lebanon, and the Anti-Lebanon Mountains, which straddle the border between Syria and Lebanon.

The reason why the Bekka Valley is such an issue today is because of the current conflict being waged in the Middle East between Israel and Hizb'allah, which is Arabic for the Party of Allah (G-d). The Bekka Valley represents the hub of Hizb'allah strength militarily. The majority of infrastructure for Hizb'allah is located there, along with many of its active fighters. While South Beruit is the political center of Hizb'allah, its center of gravity is perhaps more inclined to be found in the Bekka Valley, as Hizb'allah's political strength comes due to its military strength. It is currently more powerful than the actual Lebanese Army, which has resulted in a phenomena indicative of a failed state, namely that of a "state-within-a-state." Hizb'allah is not bound by any Lebanese authority, and as it is not, de jure, a state itself, it is also not bound by international law which is based on the hundreds year old Westphalian System. Because of its geographic position straddling the Lebanese/Syrian border, the Bekka Valley represents the location where the majority of arms transfers from Iran and Syria to Hizb'allah take placeThere is some thought among political and military analysists that any effort to destroy or diminish Hizb'allah is doomed to failure unless Hizb'allah is decisively attacked inside the Bekka Valley, and its military assets and infrastructure destroyed. However, the Valley itself lies scores of miles inside Lebanon, and thus requires a major incursion to reach, which means any drive by Israeli forces would likely require many days to undertake.

Update: Apparently a major Israeli operation into the Bekka (Bekaa?) Valley is underway. The Wiki for the Bekka Valley can be found here. Not much to it, truth be told.

The Whole Enchilada

2006-07-21T20:44:00.000-07:00

I am become engaged in a discussion over at The Belmont Club, concerning the Battle in/for Baghdad, and Iranian involvement. You can find the post and comments here. Here is my comment thus far, I have saved the second (Wretchard asks that we limit our posts to two , if possible) for later:

Why do you think that Iran so desperately wants Nuclear Weapons? Not to use them on Israel. That means certain death. No, to use them on the damned, treacherous Sunnis of course. Destroying Israel isn't enough for the Mullahs. They want the whole enchilda. That means reversing a thousand years of history, and turning Shi'ite Islam into the dominate sect. Take out the Sunnis, then destroy Israel. That's the strategy. Nuclear weapons are key to their victory against the Sunnis. The Mullahs see nukes as the key element to keep the US out of things. The US effort in Iraq has, unfortunately, helped them in this regard. However, things aren't over yet.

This comment references, indirectly, my argument concerning Iran's goal of a nuclear wall, which can be found in these two posts. I am now going to try and clarify what I said before, and what it means in light of recent events.

Iran leaders are not merely content with the destruction of Israel. Most everyone who listens with a serious ear to Iran focuses only on the avowed hatred of the state of Israel, and the wish of the Mullahs that it be destroyed. The see the Mullah's drive to acquire nuclear weapons, and they believe that Iran wants nukes in order to destroy Israel. That view, while certainly better than the ostrich mentality displayed by some on the political left, is in fact incomplete. They are not thinking big enough. Iran wants the whole enchilada (That link takes you to a site which has a fairly good map of the Muslim world).

Iran is seeking to undo centuries worth of history, and restore Shi'ite Islam to dominance in the Muslim world. Its quest for nuclear weapons is one of the primary steps to the Mullah's achieving their goals. Nuclear weapons allow the Mullahs several advantages:
A) They are seen as a way of keeping the US out of the fight
B) Possessing nuclear weapons provides a certain prestige, important in a shame-based culture which dominates the Islamic world
C) Nuclear weapons can be used to threaten other Islamic, Sunni states, to keep them out of conflicts. That way, Iran can approach each nation one at a time, rather than have all of them gang up on it.

The US has unfortunately, and unintentionally, aided Iran to a degree with its decision to remove Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq. Saddam was seen by many a bulwark against Iran, and it was for that reason he wasn't removed back in '91. Forget the Highway of Death, it was all about regional politics. The other Arab states didn't like the idea of a democratic Iraq, because it would be a Shi'ite dominated Iraq, and hence likely to side with Iran. Shi'ites hold considerably more political power in Iraq now, and perhaps even dominate the political scene to a degree. However, a broad coalition exists. This Iran is seek to address. How? By stirring up Sectarian violence, of course. The reason spat of Shia attacks against Sunnis have been orchestrated by Iran, in order to get the Sunnis to try and fight back. The Insurgency has mostly been defeated, but Sectarian violence is still a problem. What I think Iran is trying to accomplish is to force the Sunni's out of Iraq as a whole. Drive them out, and Shi'ites become a much larger part of the voting bloc, and so too is that part of the Shi'ite electorate with Iranian/Khomeinist sympathies. Iran, and not Al Qaeda, is the major stumbling block in Iraq now.

Lebanon is another country where Iran seeks to expand its influence. Hizb'allah is Iran's proxy in this regard, and has been acting to further Iran's interests. My speculation on Iran and Hizb'allahs intentions is that Hizb'allah deliberately picked a fight with Israel, knowing that Israel's response would cause significant damage in Lebanon. The hope, the plan was that Israel would be limited by external political forces and thus not be able to push into Lebanon and finish Hizb'allah off, or at least weaken it severely. The end plan was for the Lebanese government to be weakened and discredited, so that Hizb'allah could, either through ballots or bullets, seek to dominate the country politically, at least, more so than it was doing before. While Shi'ite Islam only compromises about 15% of all Muslims worldwide, that doesn't mean it can't assume control politically. Iraq was only about 15-20% Sunni, but Saddam lead it with Sunni Muslims as his main political supporters. Similar can be done elsewhere by the Shia. They can use force and threats to cower the majority into accepting their rule. Then, when in charge, the Shi'ites can push their radical Khomeinist ideology, and eventually sway Muslims away from the Sunni camp. Any serious Sunni resistance can be met with nuclear fire. Israel is scheduled for destruction, of course, just after Shi'ite Islam has started to make its comeback. The Mullahs need Iran as their base for a while yet, and they know any attempt to destroy Israel would result in their, and Iran's, destruction. They are patient men, because after all, Allah is on their side.

Pinpoint Strikes

2006-07-20T19:07:00.000-07:00

Apparently, several thousand Israeli troops have crossed into Southern Lebanon, apparently intent on clearing out Hizb'allah troops along the border. Wretchard has more.

Update: Apparently, since I last checked, there are reports of major troop movements inside Lebanon. Apparently the previous incursions were aimed to clear away any hold-out or spoiler forces left by Hizb'allah near the border.

Update 2: The reports of an incursion into Lebanon, a deep incursion, were inaccurate it seems. Israel is "merely" building up a sizable force all along the border, probably for PR effect.

Candles in the Dark

2006-07-19T22:12:00.000-07:00

Here is a fascinating piece from MSNBC, talking about what is known about Israel's nuclear program. It is perhaps the biggest open secret in the world.

Al-Reuters Strikes Again

2006-07-19T12:28:00.000-07:00

Here is a picture, courtesy of Reuters. Here is the Reuters caption:

Supporters of Lebanon protest outside the Israeli consulate in New York, July 18, 2006. REUTERS/Chip East (UNITED STATES)

Once again, Reuters displays either extreme incompetence, or actively sides with the terrorists and their sympathizers. See that sign to the right of the photo? It says "Islam will Dominate." And has a picture of the White House with the Black Flag of Jihad flying above it. Supporters of Lebanon? Or Supporters of Hizb'allah? You decide.

Debka's Take

2006-07-18T12:40:00.000-07:00

I have long since canned my "Debka-Watch" blog, but Debka does have at times things worth writing about. Their latest"essay" on the current crisis is on such thing. Here is the link to the full article. The most important part of the essay is at the end:

Israeli generals and officials asked about the objectives of this war are cagey; they can’t tell what will eventuate in the next 24 hours – and not only because of the uncertain fortunes of war. The tricky test is to correlate Israeli and American interests from one day to the next. Hizballah keeps on threatening “new surprises,” because its leaders are also playing their tactics by ear, dependent on the support and weapons Tehran judges it politic to release.

If this is in any way accurate, both "sides," US-Israel and Syria/Iran are both playing this event by ear. Which means that there is no real "political strategy" in play here by both sides. Millitary strategy must be, by nature, flexible. After all, no plan survives contact with the enemy. However, when political strategy is flexible it can easily result in mission drift, and take you into places where you never intended to go in the first place. Wretchard's latest piece talks about the "Dark Crossroads" which lie before us. If Debka is right, and both sides are playing this by ear, then not only are they dark crossroads that lie ahead, but we are walking, running, sprinting towards them blindfolded.

Chilling News

2006-07-18T11:53:00.000-07:00

Here is a report from CNN on Iraqi deaths thus far in 2006. Very disturbing.

Tunnel Vision

2006-07-17T15:53:00.000-07:00

People have been focusing a lot on President Bush's use of profanity recently with regards to Syrian involvement in Lebanon. However, there is a part of his dialogue with Tony Blair that I think deserves equal treatment, namely that "Kofi needs to call Assad." My words, as I am having some difficulty finding a piece with the full transcript. I will add then when I find it. What matters here is that Bush obviously thinks that Kofi actually posesses some kind of power or authority, and that could be leveraged against Assad. Otherwise, why mention it in an unguarded moment? Oviously Bush thinks Kofi, and perhaps the UN, isn't as completely powerless as some think.

Necessary Steps

2006-07-16T20:50:00.000-07:00

Here is a post I wrote on Strategypage:

For those of you who have been paying some attention to the Lebanese blogosphere, many are angry that Israel is going after Hizb'allah in Lebanon, rather than Assad in Syria, who is, after all, one of Hizb'allah's patrons. However, they understandably fail to appreciate the military situation. I reference readers to this map, courtesy of Debka:
http://www.debka.com/pictures/Lebanon.jpg

If one looks at where the shortest route from Israel to Damascus is, its easy to realize that it skirts Southern Lebanon. In essence, if Israel were to go after Syria first, it would leave its flank open to Hizb'allah attacks from Lebanon. Israel would probably have no choice but go into Lebanon to attack Hizb'allah positions, so that they can't disrupt the Israeli lines of supply into Syria. In short, Israel would have to deal with Hizb'allah in Lebanon if it wanted to go after Syria.

This means it makes as much sense for Israel to go after Hizb'allah first, before going after Syria. One consequence of this means that if Israel does in fact intend to go after Syria, that attack will only come after Hizb'allah has largely been neutralized inside Lebanon, and most likley after large elements of Hizb'allah have fled to Syria. Israel might only intend to deal with Hizb'allah now, but the dicates of the geography of the region and military necessity meant that whichever strategy Israel takes, it is indistinguishable from the other.

The actual post can be found here.

The First Israeli-Iranian War

2006-07-16T20:47:00.000-07:00

I am going to go out on a limb and declaring the current Middle-East conflict the first Israeli-Iranian War. The recent denunciations by the Saudis against Hizb'allah, along with the essentially zero support from Arab states indicates that this is not an Arab-Israeli War. Syria's leadership isn't Arab, its Allawite. At the moment the war is in its first stages, namely that of a proxy-war between Israel and Iran's proxy Hizb'allah. How long it stays a proxy war remains to be seen. However, the Iranian declarations to intervene if Syria is attacked represent a solid line in the sand that Israel knows it can cross and perhaps bring things to a head.

Update: Here is Thomas Barnett's take on all of this. His view that this is an Iranian Pre-emptive attack is what led me to call this an Israeli-Iranian war.

Securing the Flank

2006-07-16T11:00:00.000-07:00

Many Lebanese bloggers, and people in Lebanon in general, are angry that Syria isn't the target of Israel's aggression at this point. Persuant to my previous post, they fail to realize that military necessarity forces Israel to deal with Hizb'allah first, before going after the Assad regime. Courtesy of Debka, here is one map of the region.

Notice that the straight route through the Golan to Damascus leaves Israel's western flank open to an attack by Hizb'allah. Israel would be forced, by necessity, to go into Lebanon no matter what it did with regards to Syria. I can't say whether or not Israel does in fact go after Syria, but there are a few indicators, I think.

The first is how many Israeli units actually go into Lebanon. If it is only a few brigades, then I take a Syrian strike as, perhaps not likely, but certainly on the table. Those units would need to be held in reserve until Israel is ready to make its move

Second, whether or not Israel goes after the Bekka Valley. Bekka is pretty deep into Lebanon, as the map shows. If Israel goes there, they leave their flank open to a Syrian strike, assuming they later go after Syria. If I was the Israelis I would go after Syria, before going after Bekka. Once Syria is removed from the picture, the terrorists trapped in the Bekka Valley aren't going anywhere. Hence, they can be removed at leisure. So a strike at Bekka first means it is unlikely Israel is looking for a wider war at this point.

Some Thoughts...

2006-07-15T21:33:00.000-07:00

Here is part of an e-mail I wrote to someone concerning Israel and Hizb'allah.

A lot of people, especially Lebanese, are angry that Israel is going after Hizb'allah, and not Syria or Iran. However, they fail to appreciate the fact that Israel can't go after Syria without dealing with Hizb'allah first. If Israel pushed straight at Syria first, it would leave their flank open from the west. They can't risk that. Hence, no matter what, they would have to deal with Hizb'allah first. The same applies to Syria and Iran. Iran is the far enemy, Syria the close enemy. Iran is the more dangerous of the two, but safety dictates that you deal with the close enemy first. Hence, even if Israel intends to deal with Iran, it has to deal with Syria first, which means defeating Hizb'allah in Lebanon.

Israel needs to be careful, however. Whatever "high ground" it has now can evaporate if it kills too many civilians.

This gives a basic view of the situation. Israel has to clean up Hizb'allah before it can go after anyone else. This sucks for the people of Lebanon, but, as the French say... c'est la vie.

No Major Changes Yet

2006-07-15T12:39:00.000-07:00

So far, things are going much as I predicted. Israel is continuing with airstrikes until they have organized their reserves, and feel they have accomplished as much as air-power allows. Once they are ready, expect a multi-brigade push into S. Lebanon, probably to the Bekka Valley. Israel is going to hold back a large number of its troops, however, in case Syria gets involved. I don't see that as likely, however. Syria won't get involved unless Iran gets involved, and Iran won't get involved unless Syria gets involved, so I expect both to sit this out and try and benefit diplomatically.

Escalation

2006-07-13T20:04:00.000-07:00

For a good update on what is happening now in the Middle East, I recommend Pajamas Media. Tigerhawk has offered some good insight into what is going on, and Israelycool is offering on and off live-blogging. Right now the ball appears to be in Hizb'allah's court, as Israel has been fairly active ever since they Mullah's goons struck Haifa. The next day or so could be critical. A wider, regional war isn't impossible.

The Fire Spreads

2006-07-12T21:43:00.000-07:00

It appears that another major Middle Eastern War is in the making. Israel has just bombed Beruit's Airport. Events could get out of hand quite quickly. Euphoric Reality has a post up discussing whether or not Israel will officially declare war on Syria in response to Hizb'allah's recent attacks.

Expected Failure

2006-06-27T17:52:00.000-07:00

The Flag Burning Amendment has failed in the Senate. This isn't really surprising to me, as I figured that it really isn't an issue the two parties want to get into at this time. I think that it was brought up only becuase some politicians wanted to establish their creds, one way or the other. Now that it has been taken care of, they can ignore it until they have to re-establish their creds.

Not Long Now

2006-06-27T16:11:00.000-07:00

The expected Israeli incursion into Gaza is not long in coming, I think. Charles has a post up, with links that readers may find beneficial. I will link to one, Vital Perspective, which will apparently live-blog the event. Once again, I happen to think that Hamas, and perhaps other factions, desire this response from Israel. However, that doesn't mean that Israel shouldn't go ahead with it. Rather, it should remind us that many Palestinian leaders see the suffering of their people as a useful tool in their maintaining power.

Crunch Time

2006-06-26T14:41:00.000-07:00

It appears thats events in Israel and the Territories is rapidaly approaching a convergence point. I can't help but think that this clash is being actively sought by the Palestinians, Hamas being at the top of the list of supporters. Why? Perhaps because Hamas realizes that the reason why people voted for them as compared to Fatah, corruption, is something that is likely to bring them down, just as it brought down the former party of Arafat. So by bringing the Intifadah back, which looks to be the likely result of all of this, Hamas hopes that it can deflect anger back against Israel.

Update on Siberia

2006-06-14T15:16:00.000-07:00

I haven't posted anything on Siberia for a while, but here is an article in Pravda concerning Siberia and Chinese immigration. Russians realize there is a problem, but I don't think they truly comprehend just how big a problem it is, in part becuase (at least, in my view) they don't seem to look that far into the future. Its a crisis that looms a few decades from now, and is thus off most people's radar.

The Fading Impact of 9/11

2006-06-13T16:24:00.000-07:00

Courtesy of PowerLine, I direct your attention to this post by pollster Scott Ramussen. While it is worth it to read the whole piece, the most important part is the summation at the end:

Another possibility, suggested by a wealth of polling data, is that Iraq and the War on Terror are no longer the dominant voting issues. For the first time since 9/11, we will have an election decided on issues closer to home. Immigration, the economy, and other domestic topics may ultimately decide the critical election contests this November.

Keep your eyes peeled folks. I have predicted for a while now that the GOP wouldn't do too well in the mid-terms in '08, for many reasons, but among them the fact that the GOP leadership still thinks that national security is important enough that Dem foolishness in that field would be enough to always tip elections their way. This doesn't appear to be good news for the GOP in that regard. The Powerline post about this is also worth reading.

Analyze This!

2006-06-13T15:25:00.000-07:00

Recently, I signed my blog up for Google Analytics. For those of you who haven't heard of it before, it advertises itself as:

Google Analytics tells you everything you want to know about how your visitors found you and how they interact with your site. You'll be able to focus your marketing resources on campaigns and initiatives that deliver ROI, and improve your site to convert more visitors.

While I don't have ads set up on my blog, and thus don't have quite the incentive to direct traffic to it like some other bloggers, I did find the idea of understanding how people came to my site to be an interesting one. Hence, the decision to sign up for the program. So far, I have found a few interesting things out, although I had known or guessed some parts. Google provides about half of my traffic, at 45% or so. I had known previously most of my hits came from Google, but the fact that it is almost half is interesting. I wonder how that compares to other blogs. C-SPAN, which has a link to my blog, is a number 3, which I had not known before. Direct links were at number 2. What is perhaps most interesting is that TigerHawk is the site, besides C-SPAN, which provides me with the most traffic. I hadn't realized that before, so I suppose I owe the crew over at TH a thank you. I look forward to see how things will change over the summer, in terms of traffic.

Things Fall Apart

2006-06-11T15:07:00.000-07:00

I haven't been paying too much attention to it, but apparently the Duke Lacrosse Team Rape Case is falling apart. I am not too terribly surprised, considering how weak it was since the beginning. Speaking of falling apart, that may be the case with the Haditha "incident" as well. One thing about the information age, and something which Serenity fans should understand, is that you "Can't Stop the Signal." Information is becoming increasingly hard to control. The truth will out, in the end. In the past it used to take decades. Now it will only take weeks. Of course, the truth is only as powerful as people's willingness to believe in it, and that I fear is something that technology has yet to change.

Where to spend your time on a Friday evening

2006-06-09T19:01:00.000-07:00

Where? Why over at TigerHawk, of course? Lots of good stuff up at the moment, covering things from Z-mans timely demise to soccer-wars.

Grats to them for making Powerline's top blog of the week.

View from the Holy Land

2006-06-07T21:21:00.000-07:00

Courtesy of Windsofchange, here is one Palestinian's account of some goings on inside the territories.

Trouble in Somalia

2006-06-06T14:58:00.000-07:00

Kim over at Wizbang has more. Unless I am much mistake, a US military expedition to Somalia is now almost a given. It probably will not happen until aftert the Mid-term elections, but I rank it as more than 80% certain. The Bush admin isn't going to wait much longer than that before doing something, they will not want to give Al Qaeda any more time to set things up in Somalia along the lines of Afghanistan, which is what surely will happen.

Gatekeepers

2006-06-05T16:30:00.000-07:00

Recently I have been wondering whether or not Rudy Guiliani could be nominated by the GOP as its Presidential candidate. His previous social views are the most often cited reason for his not being accepted. This of course raises a question in my mind: who are the gatekeepers in the Republican and Democratic Parties? What are the key issues to which a candidate must hew to the party orthodoxy in order to get nominated? I would ask for reader input on this, though I will submit my own list later. I also intend to ask several other bloggers what they think.

Update: So far, no responses. Somewhat disappointing, but I guess more incentive for me to create my own list.

Moving Forward

2006-06-05T16:26:00.000-07:00

Wretchard has been on a roll, with more posts from him in the past 2 days than I ever remember seeing. So go pay him a visit.

The Price of Peace

2006-06-05T12:49:00.000-07:00

I have been searching the Net recently in order to try and find out how many French civilians were killed by the allies during World War 2. So far I have had trouble finding any sources that breakdown who killed French civilians during the war. One site mentions that between 15,000 and 20,000 civilians were killed in the Normandy invasion, mostly by allied bombers. I will update this as I find out more.

Good News from Peru

2006-06-04T18:38:00.000-07:00

It appears that the Peruvians have dodged a bullet. This is a good sign, as it indicates that there is real support against Hugo Chavez and his ilk in South America. While some on the right want to focus solely on Radical Islam, they forget that the impact of globalization which is enabling the spread and danger of Islamist Terrorism also impacts non-Muslim parts of the world, and enables similar anti-liberal forces. Chavez and his quasi-nationalist/neo-Marxist beliefs represent another threat to the world, albeit a smaller one at the moment. However, as more nations join the Chavez line, the more dangerous it becomes, which is why the victory of Garcia, a strident anti-Chavez foe, is such good news.

Sometimes...

2006-06-03T12:02:00.000-07:00

...the media is just stupid.

TEHRAN, Iran — Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said Saturday that a breakthrough over Tehran's nuclear program was possible and welcomed unconditional talks with all parties, including the United States.

Note the important part of that segment: unconditional talks. Note what the US has said it would do: only talk with Iran if it halts enrichment. Note just how stupid the media is to label this a "breakthrough." Note also this is Fox, which is assumed by many on the right to be among the better of the media forces out there.

Civil War in the Middle East

2006-05-25T12:14:00.000-07:00

And no, its not in Iraq.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Amir Peretz decided on Thursday, in accordance to defense establishment recommendations, to allow the transfer of weapons and ammunition from Israel to supporters of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.
The amount of weapons to be transferred was limited, and came out of concern for Abbas' life and position at the head of the PA, security officials said.

Translation: We would rather deal with Abbas than Hamas, and keeping Abbas alive at this point requires our assistance. Perhaps what the Israelis are hoping for is a Palestinian Civil War. But transfering weapons is a dangerous proposition, as it gives Hamas grounds to call Abbas an Israeli puppet. They likely will anyways, but this gives such a charge some ground to stand on. Its quite clear that Hamas is more popular now. My personal take is that Israel should let Hamas run as freely as they dare... in order for Hamas to demonstrate itself as just as incompetent and corrupt as Fatah.

Operation (Insert Name Here)

2006-05-24T13:04:00.000-07:00

Trent Telenko is back on Windsofchange, advocating the invasion of Iran at the moment. It seems he does this every other month or so. What is perhaps different in this piece is this tidbit by StrategyPage:

May 23, 2006: There was another test of the Shahab 3 ballistic missile. This version of the missile, with a range of 2,000 kilometers can reach Southern Europe, as well as Israel. Testing now is mainly for the guidance system. Chinese and Russian technology is believed to have been obtained to build a workable nuclear warhead.

Now, this is quite important, in so far that it means that if Iran does indeed have Russian and Chinese nuclear technology, then the only limiting factor for their program is fissile material. Now if Iran was planning on using its nuke(s) right away, then it makes much more sense for them to try and get the material on the black market. I am sure that enough could be obtained, especially if they were truly desparate. However, I don't think this fits in with Iran's plans. Iran doesn't want a nuke to lob or sneak into Tel Aviv. That isn't enough for the Mullahs. They want a full out program, to act as a deterent, a wall, so that it can carry out a much more aggressive foreign policy. This policy is/will be centered around the displacement of Sunni Islam as the primary sect of Islam by Shi'ite Islam, and more specifically the Khomeinist philosophy that Iran currently follows. In my opinion, this is far more dangerous than the possibility of a nuke or two being lobbed about, because it could easily lead to a global war within Islam that could spiral out of control and destablize much of the world for decades.

Conspiracy Theories 101

2006-05-22T20:07:00.000-07:00

Since I shut down my other blog, I haven't payed Debka much mind. However, there are two stories there that I find of interest at the moment.

The first is this:

DEBKAfile reports: Bush is expected to offer the mighty BIG-BLU bunker buster bomb to Israel and Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia

I find this report interesting in that it would seem to indicate that the US is not prepared to actively curtail the Iranian nuclear program itself, at least, not right away. Rather, this seems to indicate a possible effort at containment is underway. By arming US allies in the region, and some who aren't exactly friends either, the US is making it clear that Iran isn't just facing the US and Israel in this matter.

The second bit was the fact that the Jordanian Ambassador's driver was killed in Gaza. The "given" cause of death was a firefight between Hamas and Fatah. However, I find this interesting:

The Jordanian citizen was shot dead in an official embassy car marked with royal emblems outside the Palestinian legislature in Gaza.

The conspiracist in me says this wasn't an accidental shooting from a gang fight gone bad, but rather a coordinated assassination attempt against the Jordanian Ambassador, who was presumed to be in the vehicle. Either the assassins had bad intell, or they "jumped the gun", so to speak. The fight itself between Hamas and Fatah gunmen would have been used as cover. As for who would want the Jordanian Ambassador dead... well, I think Al Qaeda is pretty high up on the list. Perhaps reports of their infiltration of the Gaza strip should be taken seriously.

Items of Interest

2006-05-19T16:29:00.000-07:00

There are few people I respect more than Michael Totten. Here is an example of why.
(Did I just end a sentence with a preposition?)

Wretchard has a host of good posts up.

Will and Grace has apparently ended. Never watched a single show before, and I doubt I ever will. Those of you who are interested can find the final episode here, via parent company NBC.

The FAA is hurting US efforts to secure the border.

For those who might be interested...

2006-05-18T14:42:00.000-07:00

The Senate is debating and voting on Amendments to the Immigration Bill at the moment.

Given that an amendment was just passed that essentially made English the national language, something which I believe has been thwarted many a time before, I suspect that Poison Pills will prevent the bill from being passed.

Update: C-SPAN feed found here.

Instability in the Gap

2006-05-17T17:48:00.000-07:00

This time in Brazil. The real problem is when instability in one country spreads to other countries. This doesn't look to be the case with the Brazilian violence, but it does show how lucky we are in the US.

Google Trends

2006-05-16T15:51:00.000-07:00

Apparently, like Michael, I too missed Google Trends somehow. However, now that I know it exists, I am keen to find a good use for it. Somehow.

Update: Apparently, only the Anglosphere (plus Germany) is inclined to search for neoconservatism, but Zionism is apparently big in Iran at the moment.

Absence Makes the Heart Grow Fonder...

2006-05-16T15:31:00.000-07:00

At least, that is how I think it goes. Sorry for the prolonged absence, but blogging simply lost its appeal to me for the longest time. In fact, the net did in general. I needed some time to turn inward, a time for self-examination.

However, this has ended, for the time being at least. The immigration issue has convinced me to get my head out of history books and to start blogging again.

Perhaps the most important aspect of the debate is how it is in a way revitalizing the conservative base of the Republican Party. While Democrats who oppose lenient immigration laws are plentiful, they are not nearly as motivated as Republicans with similar views. Right now there is some question as to whether or not the immigration issue will split the Republican Party. I agree with John at Powerline:

For purposes of 2006, I'm not convinced that the party will take a big hit due to the immigration issue. There is no national race. Each Republican will take the position that makes sense to him or her (presumably balancing political and policy preference considerations in some fashion). In doing so, Republican candidates will make some voters angry, but individual Democratic candidates will face the same dilemma.

His views on the '06 mid-terms are similar to mine. Mid-term elections are almost always localist in nature, rarely are they national. Hence, immigration will be an issue, but it will not be nearly as divisive for the GOP as some may fear. It probably won't affect the Democrats terribly much either, they have issues far more important to most of them to debate on.

What about '08? I am going on a limb here, and will say that immigration will be one of the biggest issues in the Presidential election for '08. In fact, it may be the biggest issue in the Republican primaries, and I doubt it will have no impact on the Democratic primaries as well. My personal hunch is that the GOP will not nominate a candidate who is perceived, openly at least, as "soft" on immigration. That doesn't mean that the nominee won't pretend to be "hard" but in reality be "soft", but I just don't see it as likely that an openly soft candidate will make it through the primaries and emerge the winner at the convention.

It would be interesting to see just how much impact there will be on the Democratic party. I have no good guesses there. The most likely instance of immigration greatly impacting the Democrats will be if a strong Labor candidate runs with a Populist bent, calling for stronger immigration enforcement. I don't see such a candidate winning, but it would likely impact the platform some.

As for action in Congress, I don't see anything passsing before the mid-terms. There is too much to be gained for holding off on any major votes, and too much to lose by committing yourself early, and giving opponents room to outflank you.

Game Time?

2006-04-12T19:13:00.000-07:00

Iran could have enough material for a nuclear bomb in 16 days.

If something is going to happen, I suspect it will happen sooner, rather than later. Of course, having enough material to make a bomb, and having the expertise to make one, plus the materials to do so, are two different things. Plus being able to fit a weapon into a missile warhead. However, it is quite clear this is an escalation point.

Update: The more I read this, the less clear I think the author was. I am now thinking that what is being discussed here is theory, and not fact. At the moment Iran doesn't have the 50,000 centrifuges that are mentioned as being needed to process the material for a bomb in 16 days. Rather, it is Iran's intent to be able to make a bomb in 16 days, not necessarily that they could do so now. Its a very unclear article.

Top 10

2006-02-22T21:09:00.000-08:00

Courtesy of StrategyPage, the top ten signs of a US move against Iran:

1. – The U.S. Navy stages a "surge exercise" and moves six carrier battle groups into the Indian Ocean.

2. – A "regularly scheduled exercise" moves Patriot Missile Batteies to Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. These exercises happen from time to time, but if they happen when other things are happening…

3. -- Movement of B-52 and B1B bombers to the island of Diego Garcia (in the Indian Ocean).

4. -- Deployment of F117 stealth bombers and F-22 fighters to anywhere in the Persian Gulf.

5. -- Deployment of B-2 Stealth Bombers to Guam, where there are special facilities for maintaining these aircraft.

6. -- Lockdown of Whitman Air Force Base (where most B-2 bombers are stationed) in Missouri.

7. -- Increased delivery of Pizza to Pentagon

8. –Sudden loss of cell service near some air force bases (from which heavy bombers would depart). At the same time, there would be sightings of Middle Eastern looking guys around these bases, trying to get their cell phones to work, while being observed by what appears to be FBI agents.

9. Deployment of KC-135/KC-10 aerial tankers to Diego Garcia, Guam and the Persian Gulf.

10. America asks nations neighboring Iran for basing and over flight rights.

A fascinating read.

Shrine Bombing in Iraq

2006-02-22T16:04:00.000-08:00

The recent bombing of a Shi'ite mosque in Iraq is very problematic. Pictures of the devastation can be found here. This will almost certainly lead to retaliation against Sunnis in Iraq, which is the entire purpose of this attack. Hopefully the outbreaks of violence can be controlled, or this could turn into a full fledged grudge war (as if it wasn't already to a degree).

A Little History For You...

2006-02-14T13:57:00.000-08:00

Courtesty of the History Channel, a short history of Valentine's Day.

Hardly surprising that a holiday which celebrates love should have lasted as long as it has.

Cheney and Aaron Burr

2006-02-14T13:47:00.000-08:00

Apparently, some people have taken the opportunity of Dick Cheney's hunting accident as an opportuntity to bring up parallels between him and Aaron Burr. This is of course, a ridiculous notion. If we tried to apply the analogy today of Aaron Burr, the situation would have been much different. Namely, that Cheney would have challenged Howard Dean to a duel and then shot and killed him. Please folks, less pathetic attempts to use history against the administration like this, thank you.

On a side note: I will reconsider my views herein detailed should the Vice-President, after leaving office, attempt to get Hawaii and/or Alaska to leave the Union and form a separate, independent state.

Intersting

2006-02-11T21:51:00.000-08:00

I don't know how much truth there is to this report, but it is a fascinating read. Noticably absent is any mention of special forces, cruise missiles or any general land forces.

This is particularly interesting:

The Bush administration has recently announced plans to add conventional ballistic missiles to the armoury of its nuclear Trident submarines within the next two years. If ready in time, they would also form part of the plan of attack.

This is copying what the Chinese have done, that is, creating a significant amount of conventional ballistic missiles to use as very long range artillery.

So thats where he has been...

2006-02-10T11:31:00.000-08:00

Michael Totten is back from Iraq.

The Democrats Must be Suicidal

2006-02-09T14:48:00.000-08:00

That is the only logical reason for picking Howard Dean as their nominal leader.

No Surprise to Me

2006-02-09T14:30:00.000-08:00

This story doesn't really surprise me at all. I always figured that a few terror attacks in the US had been averted since 9/11, and this only confirms my suspicions. The reason we don't hear about such things should be obvious: the more we know about how terror attacks were foiled, the more the terrorists know, and the easier it is for them to plan around our defenses. We likely will not hear about the full extent of the terror threat, the threat which fools like Michael Moore deny exists, and likely will continue to deny existed until the day they die.

Raising the Thermostat

2006-02-06T14:18:00.000-08:00

Things are heating up in the Cartoon Controversy. I only hope that Europe maintains its backbone. If it backs down now, it will be in serious trouble later on.

A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words

2006-02-04T15:41:00.000-08:00

Via LGF, I found this picture on The Jawa Report.

The Situation in Europe

2006-02-04T14:27:00.000-08:00

By all accounts, events in Europe and the Muslim World are not yet cooling down. Burning an embassy in Syria is probably only just the beginning. I am, however, optimistic. Like Wretchard, I worried that the troubles in Europe would ignite later, when they would be more difficult to put out. That being not the case, I believe that the European people and leadership will come out of this, if not for the better, at least no worse than they were before. Indeed, I rather suspect that many Europeans who didn't believe the Muslims in the midst to be a threat are quietly re-evaluating the situation. I do not think that this will be "the big event". It is, however, the harbinger of things to come. The Lines are starting to clear up, and soon we will be able to tell which players are which.

Is Hillary Going to Run for President in '08?

2006-01-31T16:52:00.000-08:00

Answer: Follow the Money.

A Provision worth noting

2006-01-31T16:42:00.000-08:00

While scouring the FNC website, I came across this article discussing a change proposed to the Patriot Act. I hope to go over it more thoroughly later, but it suggests to me a worry about Al Qaeda agents disguising themselves as protestors in order to carry out attacks/assassination.

Do People at the Times Read History's End?

2006-01-28T15:54:00.000-08:00

It sure seems like it to me. Here is an article discussing the possibility of war with Iran. While the whole article is worth reading, this part definitely caught my eye:

Iran, of course, secure now behind its nuclear wall, will surely step up its campaign of terror around the world. It will become even more of a magnet and haven for terrorists. The terror training grounds of Afghanistan were always vulnerable if the West had the resolve. Protected by a nuclear-missile-owning state, Iranian camps will become impregnable.

This phrase, nuclear wall, was one that I used over a year ago to describe why Iran was going nuclear. This author doesn't go as far as I do, however, in explaining why Iran wants that wall, namely to re-open the Sunni/Shi'ite Islamic civil war. The results of that war could be just as catastrophic as any nuclear war between Israel and Iran.

America up for More?

2006-01-27T17:20:00.000-08:00

Courtesy of Drudge, here is a poll from the Financial Times stating something rather interesting. Some anti-Iraq War fluff is present, as is easily seen, but this is still an important poll. Supposing that any action against Iran was quick, this seems to provide enough public support for the President to take a harsher stand against Iran, and appear able to back up any threats made against Iran. I wonder if the Admin has been polling on this issue as well? If not, perhaps this will convince them to ratchet up their rhetoric.

Something Fishy in the State of Denmark

2006-01-27T17:13:00.000-08:00

Charles at LGF has alerted me to this post over at the Jawa Report.

Rusty asks a simple question that the Kossacks should be asking themselves:

I wonder how many Christian fundamentalists have threatened to blow themselves up in New York over Kanye West's portrayal of Christ in Rolling Stone?

Christianity has pretty much weeded out the kind of militarism that is still running strong in Islamist theology today, not withstanding what the Kossacks think. There are exceptions, but they are extremely rare, and are always immediately, and sincerely, denounced. The same can't be said for Islam.

Victory and Defeat...

2006-01-26T16:24:00.000-08:00

...can sometimes be difficult to tell apart. Case in point: Hamas wins the Palestinian elections. Some might think this a defeat, but I am one of those who thinks differently. Echoing others, I see a potential victory here. Hamas won the election because it promised to make Israel pay. Now it will have to live up to that promise, or lose the support of the Palestinian people. So now it must make a chioce: Anger the world by trying to carry out its threats against Israel, or anger the Palestinian people who voted for it(and not because of its mafia-esque social programs). I look forward to this, actually. Perhaps the best thing for the region would be Hamas finally being unveiled for what it truly is. If all goes well a full out Palestinian Civil War will break out, and whatever the sides are, I wish the best of luck to them.

Enough is Enough

2006-01-24T19:25:00.000-08:00

I am sick and tired of American companies caving in to Chinese demands when it comes to censorship. Google is the latest, and I have had enough. It may not be much, but I do not intend to use Google, ever again, until it stops supporting censorship. Other search engines exist, and I am going to use them from now on.

France Chooses MAD

2006-01-19T17:23:00.000-08:00

France is the first nation to publically adopt the option of Mutually Assured Destruction with Iran, or at least, that is what I am getting from Chirac's statement concerning nuclear weapons. The full statement can be found here. Unless I am grossly mistaken, Chirac has just informed Tehran that the French government will regard any terrorist actions sponsored or supported by Iran against France as a threat to its integrity as a nation-state, thereby justifying the use of nuclear weapons as retaliation. This is a form of Mutually Assured Destruction, with a moder twist. Now France will regard terrorist attacks as on the same level of danger as a nuclear attack, thereby instigating France into using nuclear weapons in retaliation, all the while knowing that Iran in turn will launch back at France. In short, the French have either accepted Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons, or at the very leas consider it highly likely and are planning ahead for such a condition.

France's official policy can be summed up as such:

Terrorist Attack in France=Nuclear attack on France=Nuclear Retaliation.

Of course, the threshold was not specified by Chirac, nor should it be. Setting any kind of obvious standard would give terrorists more leeway. France is now forcing the Iranians to gamble on how much they are willing to take before using nukes. While this may have been the case before, it is in the open now.

This makes me wonder if the French think this alone will be adequate to protect them, or is this a result of desperation?

Storm Clouds

2006-01-16T16:43:00.000-08:00

Iran has been getting a lot of attention in the blogosphere lately. A lot. Michelle Malkin has an excellent roundup on this. This raises many questions for me. You see, the network nature of the Web helps produce something close to a collective consciousness at times, and I sometimes wonder just how effective or smart that pseudo-consciousness is. Is this suddenly renewed attention towards the Mullahs the result of specfic recent events, like the suspension of diplomatic talks, which Publius Pundit covers so well? Is it a result of an apparent cooldown of Iraq, thus directing attention elsewhere? Or is it something else? A perception that perhaps efforts and attention have shifted towards Iran. A subconsious perception that perhaps things in Iran are coming to a head?

I cannot say at this point. What I can predict is that, diplomatically at least, Iran will occupy a fair amount of attention in the International Scene. As for whether or not something will come of it, I am doubtful. Personally I am now convinced that Russia either doesn't care if Iran goes nuclear, or that the Russian leadership is convinced that the US or Israel will take care of the issue before it becomes a problem for them. I am not not so sure about China. Pakistan is China's major ally in the region, not Iran. An Iranian bomb threatens Pakistan somewhat. So China has to decide whether or not Iran going nuclear is benefitial for them. Is the threat to Pakistan too great? Or perhaps the threat would be an incentive for Pakistan to buy even more military equipment from China. I expect a Russian Security Council veto more than a Chinese one.

Update: I may have been wrong about China.