History's End

History will end only when Man does

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  • Friday, June 04, 2004

    The Second American Civil War-Part Three

    In part one of this series I examined the causes behind the American Civil War, while in part two of the series I examined what the two sides in a second American Civil War would be. In part three of the series I will try and cover some aspects on what would make a second Civil War special, and/or different from the first one.

    As some commentators have already noted, the Orthodox possesses a gun culture that the Progressives lack. An overwhelming majority of the guns and firearms skills in the United States are in the hands of the Orthodox. Should actual fighting and shooting break out, the Orthodox would have an immense immediate advantage against other civilian Progressives. Indeed, the advantage is so great that it would likely take actual military units on the side of the Progressives to give them an advantage. And that takes me to my second point: The Orthodox represent a majority in the Armed Forces, indeed, it is likely an overwhelming majority, and many of those who aren't Orthodox would perhaps fall in the "third" category of "cultural agnostics" rather than Progressive camp. The Progressives can't count on the military doing what they want, even if they have control of the White House. And if the Orthodox control the White House, or no one does (two Presidents, like say Gore hadn't accepted his defeat in 2000), then the military will likely go to the Orthodox camp. Thus if it comes to serious fighting, the Progressives will lose many, most, perhaps all, of the fights.

    A Second American Civil War would also be different in that it wouldn't be as regional as the previous conflict. There will be no vast North-South divide. The Midwest and the South do contain more Orthodox than Progressives, and the West Coast and North-East the most Progressives, but it won't be as big a regional divide before. In fact, the divide is not so much regional as it is a urban/non-urban divide. Urban dwellers tend to fall into the Progressive camp, while sub-urban and rural Americans tend to be in the Orthodox camp. So instead of fighting going on between North and South, the fighting would more likely be in cities, perhaps on the boundaries between sub-urbs and the more densely urban parts of the cities. This is hard to predict, however, so don't hold me to it if this should actually come about.

    There is a lot more to consider, and I would appreciate hints and ideas from any readers.


    Rob of Crushing Dissent has a post up where he gives his take on the situation. He includes a map that gives a fairly accurate impression of where the zones of Orthodox/Progressive support are. However, it should be noted that a few of them aren't accurate, as some Democrat controlled areas tend to be populist, and not necessarily Progressive. Some Republican zones are also not Orthodox, and would fit better into the third category. I am still not sure how this will start, or what it will look like though. Any event is still fairly far in the future, although the upcoming Presidential election does represent a chance for us to get a better view of the two sides. It is entirely possible that some elements of the Progressives will violently resist a Bush re-election, should it occur.

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