History's End

History will end only when Man does

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  • Thursday, November 11, 2004

    Prospects for '08

    While some on the Left has decided to either vacate for Canada or hide in their homes waiting for Ashcroft's secret police to drag them a... nevermind... , others have decided to prepare themselves for the mid term elections in '08. However, what exactly can they hope to achieve? Glenn links to a WaPo article that shows how re-districting after the last census has resulted in the creation of many "safe districts."
    Thanks to rigged boundaries and the incumbents' immense fundraising advantage, nearly 96 percent of the "races" were won by a margin of at least 10 percent. Richie noted that 29 of the 33 open seats (with no incumbents running) stayed with the same party. The turnout of voters was about 50 percent higher than in off-year 2002, but party ratios in the House barely budged.
    I thought earlier that the Democrats, angered by the election results in '04, had a decent chance, or at least, a the possibility, of re-taking the house in '06. After thinking about it though, and reading this article, that seems unlikely now. Incumbents are simply too safe. This leaves the Senate as the only branch of the legislature they can hope to take back. However, 17 of the seats open for elections are held by Democrats, 15 by Republicans, and 1 by an Independent. So the Democrats will have to beat a full third of the Republicans open for re-election, while losing none of their own, to take back the Senate. Not impossible, but very hard. I think the most likely outcome in '06 is a a slight reduction in the number of GOP reps and Senators after the '06 election. Although the strong GOP showing in '02 might indicate otherwise.

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