History's End

History will end only when Man does

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  • Saturday, February 26, 2005

    Egypt Feels the Pressure

    Apparently being snubbed by Condi had its effect, as Mubarak has now started to implement election reforms in Egypt. Or at least, he is saying he is. Marc Schulman at American Future has a post up with a thorough collection of links concerning this latest shake-up in the Middle East.

    This is undoubtably good news, and is another sign that the times, they are a changin'. Mubarak now has to at least make pretenses of reform. He wouldn't do that unless he was felling pressure. Why? Because the trappings of democracy are dangerous to autocracy. When the people are surrounded by democratic institutions and ideas, without the actual democracy, they will grow pessimistic, cynical of their current regime. They will lose faith in it, and you will see the rise of groups dedicated to actually carrying out the reforms which were touted in the past. Mubarak is now setting up the institutions by which he will lose power. Perhaps he can and will game this coming election, but its doubtful he will be able to do it afterward. The people of the Middle East have seen the Iraqis make their stand for democracy, and now are asking of themselves: "Why not us, too?"

    The pretenses of democracy, while they may distract the populace for a while, also give support to the very ideal of democracy, and create further pressure in turn. Mubarak is now locked into a cycle he can't stop. The people of Egypt will not forget broken promises, they will remember and express their true sentiments soon.

    Update: Via LGF, I find a post on Scylla and Charybodis about this subject. They believe it to be part of a "rising expectations" strategy.

    To the extent that one believes that micro- and macro-history is closely linked with Rising Expectations, the Wolfowitz Plan is simple. It is the US using military might to inject, and support, a democratic area into a despotic region. Over a long period - a generation or two - the Rising Expectations created will change the region, somewhat organically. The resulting political structures will not be carbon copies of the US, but the hegemony of despots will have been broken. And that stranglehold of despots, financed by petro dollars and continued with the use of their own Big Lie - the scapegoating of Israel as the nefarious cause of all of the regional woes of the Arab and Muslim proles - will go away. (What about that American flag? Well, that's simple. The Jews secretly control Amerika....Amerika is a puppet of its Israeli masters.....)
    That is only a small part of a greater whole, read it all.

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