History's End

History will end only when Man does

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  • Sunday, March 06, 2005


    Austin Bay analyzes the threat by the Iranian Mullahs to close the Strait of Hormuz.

    I suspect he is correct about the military dimensions of the situation. The Iranians could very well spike the cost of oil for a while, maybe a week or even a few weeks. But they lack the capacity to keep itshut, and will eventually be reduced in strength from an attempt to do so. This would also provide the US an opportunity to spur an uprising in Iran. So don't expect much more than hype from the Iranians when Hormuz is concerned.

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