History's End

History will end only when Man does

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  • Tuesday, May 16, 2006

    Absence Makes the Heart Grow Fonder...

    At least, that is how I think it goes. Sorry for the prolonged absence, but blogging simply lost its appeal to me for the longest time. In fact, the net did in general. I needed some time to turn inward, a time for self-examination.

    However, this has ended, for the time being at least. The immigration issue has convinced me to get my head out of history books and to start blogging again.

    Perhaps the most important aspect of the debate is how it is in a way revitalizing the conservative base of the Republican Party. While Democrats who oppose lenient immigration laws are plentiful, they are not nearly as motivated as Republicans with similar views. Right now there is some question as to whether or not the immigration issue will split the Republican Party. I agree with John at Powerline:
    For purposes of 2006, I'm not convinced that the party will take a big hit due to the immigration issue. There is no national race. Each Republican will take the position that makes sense to him or her (presumably balancing political and policy preference considerations in some fashion). In doing so, Republican candidates will make some voters angry, but individual Democratic candidates will face the same dilemma.
    His views on the '06 mid-terms are similar to mine. Mid-term elections are almost always localist in nature, rarely are they national. Hence, immigration will be an issue, but it will not be nearly as divisive for the GOP as some may fear. It probably won't affect the Democrats terribly much either, they have issues far more important to most of them to debate on.

    What about '08? I am going on a limb here, and will say that immigration will be one of the biggest issues in the Presidential election for '08. In fact, it may be the biggest issue in the Republican primaries, and I doubt it will have no impact on the Democratic primaries as well. My personal hunch is that the GOP will not nominate a candidate who is perceived, openly at least, as "soft" on immigration. That doesn't mean that the nominee won't pretend to be "hard" but in reality be "soft", but I just don't see it as likely that an openly soft candidate will make it through the primaries and emerge the winner at the convention.

    It would be interesting to see just how much impact there will be on the Democratic party. I have no good guesses there. The most likely instance of immigration greatly impacting the Democrats will be if a strong Labor candidate runs with a Populist bent, calling for stronger immigration enforcement. I don't see such a candidate winning, but it would likely impact the platform some.

    As for action in Congress, I don't see anything passsing before the mid-terms. There is too much to be gained for holding off on any major votes, and too much to lose by committing yourself early, and giving opponents room to outflank you.

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