The Death of Russia
As I have mentioned in my previous pieces, Colonization and Retro-Colonization, Russia is facing an existential crisis. Population Decline and the emergence of China as a world-class power poses the greatest threat to Russia's existence since Nazi Germany. Indeed, the two, combined with rampant corruption and the influence of Organized Crime could do what Hitler's 100+ divisions failed at: Destroy Russia. This post actually belongs before Retro-Colonization, at it examines Russia's options at length. Although there aren't that many available at the moment...
First off, the Population problem.
That number is simply appalling. A population implosion is underway, and there appears to be no means by which Russia can bring those numbers up, save perhaps through massive immigration. That risks destroying the national character of Russia, as those immigrants won't be Russian, and Russia doesn't have the history of integrating immigrants like America does. And where will the immigrants come from? I can think of only a few places: China, the Muslim world, and perhaps a few others places as well, like India or the Americas. India presents some interesting options, as India and Russia are fairly close at the moment. But I don't know if such a thing could occur. Although if I was in Russia's place I would certainly look at it, pretty much anything is better than the alternative. Perhaps Russia could attract immigrants from a number of places in the hopes of balancing them out?
I have seen numbers that indicates that the Russian population will be 70 million by 2050. Personally, I find those numbers to be misleading. You see, a unified Russia will likely not exist by then. Already organized crime has left many cities in the control of the Russian mob. The government has less authority in some parts than mobsters, and that trend will likely increase. With such few people, regions will tend to drift apart, and travel and communications decline. Russia will start to splinter, and isolation of certain regions will set in.
Warlords, like those found in Africa and Afghanistan, will start to appear. They might be army officers or perhaps leaders of the local Mafia family, but they will soon start to be the authority in some regions. The central government simply won't have the power to do anything about it, and Russia will cease to exist. Instead, you will have semi-independent regions marked by oligarchies, military warlords and perhaps a few theocracies in the Muslim regions. Only in the westernmost parts of Russia will order remain. In many ways it will be a return to the Middle Ages in Russia, when it was only a fraction of the size it is today. Into this gap will step countries like China.
China is hungry for resources to fuel its expanding economy. Already it has started
colonizing parts of Siberia. Once the central government lacks the power to influence things in Siberia, the PRC will move on in. At first it will possibly start with "humanitarian aid." Then perhaps setting up local governments. But it will eventually end with Siberia "voting" to join the PRC. With Siberia's resources China will be stronger than ever. Russia will be fast in decline, and with out Siberian resources to help its economy, it may never recover. We could truly be watching the death of Russia.
What can be done to stop it? Nothing comes to mind. Immigration will bring the people, but destroy what it means to be Russian. Russia will be destroyed in much the same manner that Western Europe is being destroyed today by Muslim immigration. Spreading your people out may appear good at first, but urbanization is important for a healthy economy, and thus it will suffer if you attempt to "ruralize." You can only promote large families so much, when kids are expensive and difficult to raise, it is hard to generate enough incentives. And the government can't support said incentives at the moment, and likely not before it will be too late. No, there is no easy solution. And thus Russia is going to need to look for hard solutions. Crazy solutions. Including such insane ideas as selling territory to America.
First off, the Population problem.
Figures from the State Statistics Committee predict a further population decline of 11 million, to about 134 million, in the world's largest country by 2015.
That number is simply appalling. A population implosion is underway, and there appears to be no means by which Russia can bring those numbers up, save perhaps through massive immigration. That risks destroying the national character of Russia, as those immigrants won't be Russian, and Russia doesn't have the history of integrating immigrants like America does. And where will the immigrants come from? I can think of only a few places: China, the Muslim world, and perhaps a few others places as well, like India or the Americas. India presents some interesting options, as India and Russia are fairly close at the moment. But I don't know if such a thing could occur. Although if I was in Russia's place I would certainly look at it, pretty much anything is better than the alternative. Perhaps Russia could attract immigrants from a number of places in the hopes of balancing them out?
I have seen numbers that indicates that the Russian population will be 70 million by 2050. Personally, I find those numbers to be misleading. You see, a unified Russia will likely not exist by then. Already organized crime has left many cities in the control of the Russian mob. The government has less authority in some parts than mobsters, and that trend will likely increase. With such few people, regions will tend to drift apart, and travel and communications decline. Russia will start to splinter, and isolation of certain regions will set in.
Warlords, like those found in Africa and Afghanistan, will start to appear. They might be army officers or perhaps leaders of the local Mafia family, but they will soon start to be the authority in some regions. The central government simply won't have the power to do anything about it, and Russia will cease to exist. Instead, you will have semi-independent regions marked by oligarchies, military warlords and perhaps a few theocracies in the Muslim regions. Only in the westernmost parts of Russia will order remain. In many ways it will be a return to the Middle Ages in Russia, when it was only a fraction of the size it is today. Into this gap will step countries like China.
China is hungry for resources to fuel its expanding economy. Already it has started
colonizing parts of Siberia. Once the central government lacks the power to influence things in Siberia, the PRC will move on in. At first it will possibly start with "humanitarian aid." Then perhaps setting up local governments. But it will eventually end with Siberia "voting" to join the PRC. With Siberia's resources China will be stronger than ever. Russia will be fast in decline, and with out Siberian resources to help its economy, it may never recover. We could truly be watching the death of Russia.
What can be done to stop it? Nothing comes to mind. Immigration will bring the people, but destroy what it means to be Russian. Russia will be destroyed in much the same manner that Western Europe is being destroyed today by Muslim immigration. Spreading your people out may appear good at first, but urbanization is important for a healthy economy, and thus it will suffer if you attempt to "ruralize." You can only promote large families so much, when kids are expensive and difficult to raise, it is hard to generate enough incentives. And the government can't support said incentives at the moment, and likely not before it will be too late. No, there is no easy solution. And thus Russia is going to need to look for hard solutions. Crazy solutions. Including such insane ideas as selling territory to America.
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