History's End

History will end only when Man does

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  • Thursday, June 10, 2004

    A Historical Inevitability

    A conflict between the Orthodox and Progressive Camps is inevitable. Let there be no doubt about it. However, I am just not sure when it will happen and what that conflict will be, exactly. The more I think about it, the more resigned I am to a serious crisis occurring in the future, when compromises will no longer be possible. The Civil War that wrecked the nation from 1861 to 1865 occurred when there were no longer any compromises to be made. The South knew that while it was in the Union it would be unable to defend its institutions in the long run. No "Great Compromiser" can solve this problem in the long run, he can only delay it. We see in the recent Anti-War/Bush protests a sign of things to come, a glimpse of a possible future. In those protests we observe the feelings, emotions, desires of the Progressive camp. The Orthodox tend to "love their country" more than the Progressives do, in fact many of the Progressives hate their country. And they tend to be the most outspoken and active members of that camp.

    The riots that erupt at WTO meetings show how things could start. Massive protests by the Progressives, thousands, millions perhaps, in the streets across the country. At first peaceful, but then rabble rousers will start to rile the crowds up. At first it will be bottles, rocks thrown at the police. But then will come Molotov cocktails. The police, fearing for their safety, will have to crack down and try and restore order. It will not come easy. This could last a long time, and there could be so many that the police will be overwhelmed with numbers. The National Guard will have to come into play. Pipe bombs and firearms will replace the rocks and Molotov cocktails. People will start to die in larger numbers, and this will only enrage the mobs. Small groups of police may start to be swarmed, and beaten to a pulp. Once enough of them die in this fashion, and from the occasional bomb and sniper, the police and National Guard will start to replace the rubber bullets with real ones. "Resistance Cells" will start to form, and a form of quasi-guerrilla warfare may ensue. The middle, those who are cultural agnostics or not decisively in either camp, will likely support restoring order. Non-Violent methods will probably rule the day in the beginning, but soon they will be replaced with attacks on centers of authority. This could last weeks, months. Eventually most of the rebels will be arrested or killed, as many of the Progressives will not participate, either out of fear, or a genuine distaste for violence (which I suspect is less common than would be supposed). The economy would suffer, and the "rebels" would receive most of the blame.

    In certain regions of the country, counties and cities might support the "resistance", openly and covertly. They will likely not experience unrest at first, as the Orthodox would be in the minority, and probably look to keep their own property and lives secure. Small fights may break out, but will soon be overcome by events. It is entirely possible some cities or even counties might secede from the Union, parts of the North-East or North-West coast, for example. Troops would be sent in to restore authority, and then you could have civil unrest emerge there as well. A civil war, quite unlike the previous one, would result, and would look much more like other civil wars across the globe (Ours was rather unique in how it turned out). All of this is a possible preview of how things might turnout if the Progressives were the ones to "start it." What started it? Tough to tell. Perhaps a reversal of Roe, or maybe the ratification of a Constitutional ban on Same Sex Marriage. Either way, this is just one among many possible visions of the future.

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