Portents
I had earlier posted my belief that a stalemat has been reached in the Ukraine. However, PostModernClog, an excellent blog for explaining the situation in the Ukraine right now, has a new post up that leads me to believe this isn't the case. An excerpt of great importance:
1) Blackmail Yushchenko and the Opposition, by forcing them to back down or face a divided Ukraine, in the hopes this threat will allow Yanukovych to gain the presidency.
2) Yanukovych realizes the jig is up, and that things will not go his way. Either Yushchenko will be declared President outright, or there will be another election, a cleaner one, one in which Yanukovych is almost certain to lose. In such a situation he might face criminal action, therefor he has decided to make himself king of part of the Ukraine, if he can't be king of all of it. Hence he will try and spur a seccession with the goal in mind of becoming the "President" of East Ukraine. Putin wouldn't mind this too much, as while he doesn't get a tributary out of the whole of the Ukraine, he gets some of it. So he would likely back such a movement. This puts Yushchenko in a very weak spot, much like that of Lincoln in the United States. I don't envy the man, the job ahead of him is enormous.
This is the greatest buddy team sinceI think that Discoshaman may have figured out the true situation at the moment. Momentum is onYushchenko's side, and Yanukovych knows it. Therefore, he is trying to do one of two things:Abbot and CostelloStalin and Beria. The president makes nice sounds about revoting while his surrogates quietly set up an independent republic for him and his own to rule. The same day the president announces his support for new elections, his Prime Minister pulls out of negotiations to go campaign for secession in Donetsk.
1) Blackmail Yushchenko and the Opposition, by forcing them to back down or face a divided Ukraine, in the hopes this threat will allow Yanukovych to gain the presidency.
2) Yanukovych realizes the jig is up, and that things will not go his way. Either Yushchenko will be declared President outright, or there will be another election, a cleaner one, one in which Yanukovych is almost certain to lose. In such a situation he might face criminal action, therefor he has decided to make himself king of part of the Ukraine, if he can't be king of all of it. Hence he will try and spur a seccession with the goal in mind of becoming the "President" of East Ukraine. Putin wouldn't mind this too much, as while he doesn't get a tributary out of the whole of the Ukraine, he gets some of it. So he would likely back such a movement. This puts Yushchenko in a very weak spot, much like that of Lincoln in the United States. I don't envy the man, the job ahead of him is enormous.
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