The Deal

Jack, of the blog TigerHawk, recently asked a rather simple, but rather important question which many others have not been asking as of late: Is Iran deterrable?

Unfortunately for Jack, my answer to this question is just a simple: For Now. I have written a few posts on Iran lately, dealing with the Nuclear Threat it poses, among other things. My most recent post on the subject expressed the summation of most of my thoughts on the subject. Like me, Jack also responded to what Thomas Barnett wrote, although the part Jack examines was different than what I analyzed. Here is what Jack examined:

Our offer should be both simple and bold. I would send James Baker, our last good secretary of state, to Tehran as your special envoy with the following message: "We know you're getting the bomb, and we know there isn't much we can do about it right now unless we're willing to go up-tempo right up the gut. But frankly, there's other fish we want to fry, so here's the deal: You can have the bomb, and we'll take you off the Axis of Evil list, plus we'll re-establish diplomatic ties and open up trade. But in exchange, not only will you bail us out on Iraq first and foremost by ending your support of the insurgency, you'll also cut off your sponsorship of Hezbollah and other anti-Israeli terrorist groups, help us bully Syria out of Lebanon, finally recognize Israel, and join us in guaranteeing the deal on a permanent Palestinian state. You want to be recognized as the regional player of note. We're prepared to do that. But that's the price tag. Pay it now or get ready to rumble."

Mr. Barnett, I suspect, doesn't fully appreciate the irony of the situation. He is offering Iran the bomb, in exchange for "ending your support of the insurgency, you'll also cut off your sponsorship of Hezbollah and other anti-Israeli terrorist groups, help us bully Syria out of Lebanon, finally recognize Israel, and join us in guaranteeing the deal on a permanent Palestinian state." The Irony here is that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons in order to assure its ability to support the insurgency, to support Hizb'allah, to not recognize Israel, and to keep a Palestinian state non-existent. All of those things fall into the list of Iran's strategic goals, as defined by the Khomeneist Mullahs. What Barnett offers is a situation where Iran can go nuclear, and then do nearly whatever they want. After all, what is the US going to do about it? If we aren't willing to endure the hardship of attacking a non-nuclear Iran, why the hell would be willing to attack nuclear Iran? What can we do to prevent Iran from cheating on this so called deal? Forget that, what can we do to Iran if it breaks its promise? The answer is simple, and chilling:

War, or nothing.