History's End

History will end only when Man does

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  • Thursday, January 13, 2005

    The Nuclear Wall

    Welcome Discarded Lies visitors! Be sure to check out some of my other work...

    For the past few years the subject of nuclear proliferation has increased in tempo, especially since September 11th, and the revelations that North Korea has a functioning nuclear arsenal(composed of more than just 2-4 weapons, I should add). With Iraq no longer a problem when nuclear ambitions are concerned, and with Libya disarming (pdf), the nation with the most focus upon it at the moment is the Iran. A large number of bloggers have been keeping track of the issue, with yours truly as one of them. Sites like LGF, Discarded Lies, Eurabian Times, Roger L. Simon, NRO, and others have kept attention to the issue of the Iranian bomb. Charles especially has focused on the issue, and there are many posts on LGF about it.

    The "Right" side of the blogosphere has many members who support military action against Iran to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons. However, before we address the issue of what to do with Iran, we should first determine why Iran wants to acquire nuclear weapons. After all, potential Iranian behavior should help guide us on what to do with Iran. Many have speculated that Iran wants to acquire nukes to attack Israel, citing statements by the former president of Iran. However, I think that this is not the case. I do not believe that Iran wants nukes in order to use them against Israel, and several different factors make me think so.

    First, many nations are supporting or at least turning a blind eye to Iran's quest for nuclear weapons. Now, Israel has nukes of its own, and we can assume that if attacked with nukes it will respond in kind. Since it may not be sure which nation attacked it, Israel will probably respond by retaliating against all of its hostile neighbors. Now, the Iranian Mullahs may be mad, but the leaders of Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and others aren't. If they even thought that Iran was going to use its nukes to attack Israel, they would do their damnedest to stop the Mullah's quest for nuclear weapons. Since they have not done so, I think we can safely assume that they believe the Mullahs don't intend to use nuclear weapons in an offensive role.

    Secondly, nuclear weapons have actually turned out to be defensive, not offensive in their use. As in, they are used in a defensive manner, to protect one's sovereignty and power, not used to attack other states. The last use of a nuclear weapon in anger was 1945. That is 60 years where no nuclear bomb was used as a nuclear weapon. Accident? Coincidence? I think not. Nuclear Weapons have become the Great Wall of China for the modern world. They provide the perfect wall, the perfect defense. It is an extremely risky endeavor to try and conquer a nation with nuclear weapons, because if they feel that their national survival is no longer guaranteed, then there is no logical reason for them not to use nuclear weapons. Why have the Arab states stopped openly attacking Israel? They haven't done it since '73. Why has it been over 30 years since an open general war between Israel and its neighbors? Since that last war it was learned that Israel had a nuclear arsenal. Details of that arsenal are still sketchy, but the Arab states realized they could no longer accomplish their longheld dream, the destruction of the Jewish State. Now they knew that if they attempted to destroy Israel, and the Israelis knew the end was near, then there was every reason for the Israelis to use nuclear weapons. With Israel nuclear, the Arab/Muslim states have to use other means to destroy it, else face nuclear annihilation themselves.

    Iran wants to become a nuclear power. But not so that it can launch nuclear missiles at Israel, or to try and sneak them in. None of the Arab states would allow this to be, they fully realize the consequences. Iran wants nuclear weapons so that it can have its own "impenetrable wall. " The Mullahs have long supported terrorist groups in the Middle East, particularly the notorious Hizb'allah. These groups help carry out the political aims of the Mullahs, which often revolve around increasing the power of the Shi'ite Muslim minority. However, the actions of such groups are limited by international pressure, and the knowledge that if they push too far they may incur the wrath of Israel or the US. However, a nuclear armed Iran suddenly becomes much less likely to be attacked by other states. They gain a lot of extra room to maneuver when they possess nuclear tipped missiles.

    Nuclear Weapons would also protect the Mullahs from foreign intervention. After Saddam Hussein was removed from power, they quickly realized the only means of protecting themselves from the US was to acquire weapons of mass destruction, with nuclear weapons being the most effective for the job. A nuclear Iran will be protected from regime change, and the Mullahs will thus be nearly immune to outside influence. The only real problems they would face would be domestic, and they could be far harsher and more oppressive once a nuclear power. After all, what is the international order going to do about it?

    Iran is going nuclear. The Mullahs want their wall, and will have it within a few year. The question we need to ask ourselves is this: Are we going to let the Mullahs build their Nuclear Wall?

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