History's End

History will end only when Man does

Location: United States
Blogroll Me!
  • E-Mail me
  • Sunday, April 03, 2005

    The Circle is Now Complete

    The United States has now formally assumed the place once held by England as the World Hegemon. When England was the Hegemon during the 19th century it had a foreign policy that was world wide, but focused primarily in one area: Europe. The goal of that policy was simple: to prevent the rise of a power able to dominate the continent and in turn pose a threat to the security of the Mother Island.

    the policy of England takes no account of which nation it is that seeks the overlordship of Europe. It is concerned solely with whoever is the strongest or the potentially dominating tyrant. It is a law of public policy which we are following, and not a mere expedient dictated by accidental circumstances or likes or dislikes.'
    Sir Winston Churchill, 20th century
    England would balance off alliances in an effort to assure that no European power achieved dominance of continental Europe. The policy was not to prevent the rise of and increase of power of states in Europe, merely to assure that a balance was achieved. England was not willing, and not able, to bear the cost of ensuring that no 'great' powers arose during the 19th century. Within its power, however, was the ability to dictate the pace of that rise.

    This is essentially the current US policy in Asia. The US recognizes now that it won't/can't bear the cost of preventing the rise of China. However, it can check this rise, and does so through several means. One of them is to keep up the arms embargo of the EU against China. Even there we know we can't stop it forever, but we can keep it going for as long as possible. Another step is to increase the power and prestige of Japan on the world stage. Perhaps most key, however, is US support for India. The US, in order to create a counter against Chinese ambitions in Asia, is committed to making India a major power.

    These balance of power actions neatly fit into the same strategy that England used successfully for decades during the 19th century, and the US is apparently adapting them for the 21st century. While the focus of most foreign affairs in the media is on the Middle East right now, the US recognizes that it won't remain that way for long, and Asia represents the next major hotbed of activity, and of rising states. Expect to hear more and more news from Asia about Power Games and alliances. My suspicion is that the US is going to try and put together a coalition of states against Chinese ambitions, composed of states like India, Australia, Japan, Vietnam and South Korea. I also suspect that the India-Pakistan conflict will cool down as time passes, and may no longer be much of an issue past the decade. Rather, the conflict will migrate to inside Pakistan, as force of unrest inside the country start tearing it apart. I see massive aid shipments and peacekeeping not too far into the future. I also expect China to start to build a coalition of its own, albeit one slightly smaller, and with different aims.

    Listed on BlogShares Weblog Commenting and Trackback by HaloScan.com