Election Projection: Iraq Style

Debka has their own projection of the results of the Iraqi election up, and its a fascinating read. The key part:

• Altogether 111 political entities – parties, individuals or coalitions – are running for the 275 National Assembly seats.

• A total of 7,785 candidates are registered on the national ballot

• Eligible voters in Iraq: 14.27 million

• Eligible voters outside Iraq: 1.2 – 2 million (only one-quarter of whom registered).

• More than 130 lists were submitted by the December 15, 2004 deadline for registration. Nine were multi-party coalition blocs while 102 were lists presented by single Iraqi parties.

• There are two major political blocs – Shiite and Kurdish:

The Shiite Unified Iraqi Alliance list submitted 228 candidates representing 16 Iraqi political groups including the dominant Shiite factions. Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq – SCIRI, heads this list, followed by Ibrahim Al-Jafari, head of the al-Dawa Party.

• The two Kurdish parties headed by Masoud Barzani and Jalal Talabani decided to run together on the Kurdish list.

• Both the Iraqi interim prime minister Iyad Allawi and Iraqi president Ghazi al-Yawar submitted their own lists of candidates. Allawi’s party, the Iraqi National Accord – INC, submitted a 240-candidate coalition, while al-Yawar leads an 80-member slate representing the Iraqi Grouping.

Projected Results

For elections held now, Hooker projects the following figures:

The Shiite Unified Iraqi Alliance list – 43.8% = 120 national assembly seats.

The Kurdish list – a surprising 36.4% (more than twice their 16-18% proportion of the general population) = 100 seats.

The Iraqi National Accord – 8.1% = 22 seats. (A formula is being actively sought to retain him as premier even if his showing is low.)

The Iraqi Communist party (the best organized) – 1.6% = 5 seats.

All the Assyrian, Turkomen and Yazdi minorities together – 4 seats.

All the rest – 5 seats.

I don't have any personal way of checking to see how accurate those numbers are, but I think that the Shiite Unified List and the Kurdish list are both too high. Also, the numbers for Allawi's list appear too low as well. I have heard though, that some non-Kurds are voting for the Kurdish list, either because they like/trust the Kurdish leadership, or perhaps they like the Federalist principles of the Kurdish list. My suspicion is that before too long the Kurdish list will eventually morph into an Iraqi Federalist Party, centered less on ethnic background but solid federalist political principle.