Metrics

I have mentioned earlier that it is difficult to get an accurate picture of how things are going in Iraq, as there is a deficiency of metrics by which we can measure success or failure. However, one measure that has worked thus far is changes in policy. Generally speaking, changes in policy tend to be a negative measurement, as they indicate things are either going poorly, or that current policy isn't enough. Hence, this story, if true, indicates that things may in fact not be going well at all in Iraq. Such a proposal is rather dangerous, in that it carries much political risk, and thus is a sign that there is a lot of worry. I think that what it indicates is that while the Shi'ite and Kurdish areas of Iraq are being dealt with properly, the US is having some serious problems with the Sunni areas, as well as the Sunni population in general. Such tactics seem to me to be an effort to deal with, as in, suppress, the Sunni population for a while, giving the Shia and Kurds time to build a functioning government up, and have it earn legitimacy in the eyes of their respective populations. It is possible that large sections of the Sunni Iraqi population may not accept the new system operating in Iraq for a long time, if ever. Hence the "insurgency", which really isn't but is rather a civil war, may continue for a long time. It may take a decade or more before the Sunnis eventually come to accept that the "good old days" are not ever coming back.