History's End

History will end only when Man does

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  • Monday, February 28, 2005

    Cakewalk Iran?

    RegimeChangeIran has introduced me to this article in India Daily which states that the US would have little trouble over-running Iran in a couple of weeks.
    American warfare technologies are capable of making the Iranians outright surrender in a few weeks with little real fighting. In the last two years, American have mastered such technologies that Iran will not be able to stand even days.

    Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf said on Feb. 25 that Pakistan would remain neutral in the case of a U.S. attack against Iran over Tehran's nuclear program. However, he expressed hope that such an attack would not occur.

    Sources say, Pakistan is very convinced that if situation arise, Iran cannot even stand the American invasion for even days. General Musharraf knows something that the world does not know yet.

    I have no idea of the credentials of who wrote this, or just how trustworthy the sources are for India Daily. However, this is still an interesting read, in particular because it mentions the possible use of EMP weapons against Iran.
    International think tanks believe, the main weapons Americans can use is creation of charged ionized environment where the enemy is unable to fight. In addition, what ever we saw in use in Iraq still exists and they are all more perfected.
    That is a very crude way of speaking of EMP weapons, which could be used to disable the electronics of the Iranian military. One of the problems with attacking Iran is that it might launch a series of Ballistic Missile attacks against targets across the Middle East, such as Iraq, or perhaps the Saudi Oil Fields, or more likely the Israelis. If they use Chemical or Biological warheads serious problems could result. Not only the potential for high casualties, but it could also force a military response by Israel, which could complicate things. EMP weapons could disable Iranian missiles, removing that threat. Also, E-bombs could be used to attack Iranian weapons positions which might threaten the Strait of Hormuz. One of Iran's more potent deterrents is the fact that it could close the strait, through which 25% of the world's oil is shipped.

    Also, this article goes against the conventional wisdom that Iran would be a tough nut for the US to crack. I think that the toughness of the nut depends on the US political and military objectives. Merely destroying their nuclear program is considerably easier than conquering the whole nation. Combine this with the previous bit by Debka, and you have a strong possibility of something happening in only a couple of months.

    Update: I should note that I don't necessarily think it will be a cakewalk.

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