The Straight Crisis
Marc Schulman at American Future addresses a question asked by the bloggers at Daily Demarche, concerning Chinese-American relations. A small excerpt:
His sentiments echo mine. China will wait until after the Olympics before striking. It wants them to succeed. While a strike beforehand might help guarantee surprise, it would also generate world wide hostility to China. Of course, Chinese leaders might consider a conquered Taiwan to be worth that, and could feel the morale boost would more than offset a major Olympics breakdown. But China is going to need international support in order to keep its economic growth going, and to rebuild Taiwan and bring it to heel. After the Olympics is the worrying point. The nationalist sentiment will be high, and support for an attack among the Chinese people would likely also be high. Attacking then would allow the CCP to operate from a position of strength, both domestically and internationally.
Thus, I believe there is a potential parallel to be drawn between 1936 and 2008. After the Beijing Olympics are over, the world will undoubtedly be highly impressed by China's economic strength and the unity of its people. The psychological impact of these impressions will enable the Chinese to exert greater influence on world affairs. Then, the risk of a confrontation with Taiwan will significantly rise.(Read the rest to understand his basis for this, as well as other worries)
His sentiments echo mine. China will wait until after the Olympics before striking. It wants them to succeed. While a strike beforehand might help guarantee surprise, it would also generate world wide hostility to China. Of course, Chinese leaders might consider a conquered Taiwan to be worth that, and could feel the morale boost would more than offset a major Olympics breakdown. But China is going to need international support in order to keep its economic growth going, and to rebuild Taiwan and bring it to heel. After the Olympics is the worrying point. The nationalist sentiment will be high, and support for an attack among the Chinese people would likely also be high. Attacking then would allow the CCP to operate from a position of strength, both domestically and internationally.
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