History's End

History will end only when Man does

Location: United States
Blogroll Me!
  • E-Mail me
  • Saturday, July 09, 2005

    The Threat Revealed: Part 2

    Threats Less Easily Noticed

    China has been rather quiet lately, but that doesn't mean it has been playing nice. Far from the contrary, China has been building up its military in an almost unprecedented manne. Its military now is acquiring capabilities that existed for the US military in the 1980s, and I personally believe it will enter 90's era tech by the end of the decade. China is a nationalistic nation, controlled by an unelected bureaucracy whose sole goal at the moment is to stay in power, and there is little, if anything, they won't do to stay in power. China's imperialist goals, and they are imperialist, mind you, will soon bring it strongly into conflict with its neighbors. Russia, the Koreas, Japan, Vietnam and other nations all share borders with, or are very close to, China. I strongly suspect that any conflicts that arise with this nation will be resource related, as a strong input of resources is necessary to keep China's economy moving forward, and perhaps even simply afloat. The Chinese know this, and they also know that the biggest obstacle to their acquisition of more resources is the United States. We are their principle foe, whether we recognize it or not. The Middle Kingdom may thus very well support agents hostile to the US, indirectly most of the time, but perhaps directly in special circumstances. Don't worry about China as Red China, the Great Communist Threat. Rather, worry about the New Chinese Empire, an empire that is just now being born, and whose rise from infancy may very well bring it into conflict with the US.

    Russia now doesn't arise nearly as much interest as it did in the past. The end of the Cold War directed the attention of all but the most paranoid, or alert, away from Mother Russia. However, all is not well there. "President" Putin has been setting up his own one-party democracy, much like that existing in Japan, which is a democracy in name but not really in fact. While he has not had the Constitution changed to allow him to run again, term limits prevent this, I suspect it may only be a matter of time. If not Putin himself, certainly a puppet or close friend will take this place at the head of one of the world's nuclear powers. Russia itself isn't a huge threat right now to nations not next to its borders. Its military, once the second strongest in the world, is now lucky to be in the top 10. Only its considerable nuclear arsenal keeps it up there. The country is dying as well. Demographics fortell its eventual doom, barring a population boom which seems unlikely at this point. So why then is Russia a threat? Enabling. Russia itself doesn't pose a major threat, but Russian arms and technology sales have the potential to create problems all across the world. Whether it is with nations like Iran, or Venezuela, Russia still retains the capability to promote instability, as well support negative global forces. Also, the threat of a nuke slipping into the wrong hands leaves Russia up there in the list of potential threats.

    Few people consider Venezuela to be a global threat. Why would it be? Its military isn't in the top ten, and it doesn't have nuclear weapons or global political clout. But that doesn't mean that Hugo Chavez isn't a threat. Far from it. The fact that few people are keeping their eyes on him means that Chavez can get away with quite a lot, and he has already done much. Venezuela is probably no longer a democracy any more, Chavez's goons have too much sway. So how can he be dangerous? For one, Venezuela exports a lot of oil, much of it going to the US. A halt to exports, plus pressure put on other OPEC countries, could damage the US economy. Second, Chavez hates the neo-liberalism which the US has supported in South America, especially in Chile. He is a radical socalist who can easily fund guerilla movements in all of South America with the funds obtained by oil sales. Chavez could easily destablize South America, which could have numerous negative effects for the US. First off, it could damage the economy. Secondly, it could distract the US from other areas of global concern. And thirdly, it could provide cover for terror groups to set up shop in regions with little or no government control, or perhaps under the aeigis of hostile governments. All in all, he is far more dangerous than most people realize.

    Now, this was all mostly background. I will try and explain my true thoughts a little latter.

    Listed on BlogShares Weblog Commenting and Trackback by HaloScan.com