History's End

History will end only when Man does

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  • Monday, January 16, 2006

    Storm Clouds

    Iran has been getting a lot of attention in the blogosphere lately. A lot. Michelle Malkin has an excellent roundup on this. This raises many questions for me. You see, the network nature of the Web helps produce something close to a collective consciousness at times, and I sometimes wonder just how effective or smart that pseudo-consciousness is. Is this suddenly renewed attention towards the Mullahs the result of specfic recent events, like the suspension of diplomatic talks, which Publius Pundit covers so well? Is it a result of an apparent cooldown of Iraq, thus directing attention elsewhere? Or is it something else? A perception that perhaps efforts and attention have shifted towards Iran. A subconsious perception that perhaps things in Iran are coming to a head?

    I cannot say at this point. What I can predict is that, diplomatically at least, Iran will occupy a fair amount of attention in the International Scene. As for whether or not something will come of it, I am doubtful. Personally I am now convinced that Russia either doesn't care if Iran goes nuclear, or that the Russian leadership is convinced that the US or Israel will take care of the issue before it becomes a problem for them. I am not not so sure about China. Pakistan is China's major ally in the region, not Iran. An Iranian bomb threatens Pakistan somewhat. So China has to decide whether or not Iran going nuclear is benefitial for them. Is the threat to Pakistan too great? Or perhaps the threat would be an incentive for Pakistan to buy even more military equipment from China. I expect a Russian Security Council veto more than a Chinese one.

    Update: I may have been wrong about China.

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