History's End

History will end only when Man does

Location: United States
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  • Monday, July 19, 2004


    Sometimes anticipation can be a good thing. We can barely contain ourselves, either with glee or something less subdued, but not less felt. This is not one of those times. I look at the world, and I see a globe in turmoil. Genocide in Sudan, terrorism in the Middle East and abroad, appeasement all over, including at home, and uncertainly the world over. A convergence is occuring, one which I can see coming, but am unable to place on the map. I can tell neither the time nor place of it, but I am sure that it is on its way. Events are collecting, concentrating, organizing themselves in a fashion that leaves no doubt that we are building toward something, what that is exactly lies beyond my sight. Perhaps it is the coming American Presidential Election. Perhaps all over the events of the past four years, or fourteen, if you wish, are going to focus on one single event that will define them for generations to come. Perhaps that convergence will come later, but if so, where?

    I anticipate uncertainty. Quantum Mechanics tells us that uncertainty is a fact of life, if you can call uncertainty a fact. There is no such thing a "sure thing." This applies to both the sub-atomic and macro-atomic level. Who will win the US presidential election, Bush or Kerry? How large will the margin be? If Bush wins, can he hope to get enough votes to hope for some legitimacy in the eyes of the American people? And that is merely uncertainty about one specific part of an election. Will the GOP retain controll of Congress? Will it be split, or will the Democrats regain both House and Senate? And then there are our allies abroad. Will Tony Blair make it? Will we lose any more allies, will more back down, and try and appease our foes? And then there is the uncertainty of Iraq, coupled with uncertainty about terror at home. It is an uncertain world.

    I anticipate fear. There is much to fear in the world. There is little doubt that Al Qaeda has given up its objectives of hurting the United States. The question is, when will they pull off another successful strike within the US? I dare say that it would be overly optimistic to ask if they will be able to pull another off. The potential of such an attack is unkown, so what exactly should we fear? Conventional, or chemical, biological or nuclear attack? What will happen with Iraq? Will things get better, or will our worst fears be realized, and the country spiral out of control? FDR may have told us that all we have to fear is fear itself, but that is still no easy task. There are many fearmongers out there, and some of the worries are justified.

    I anticipate conflict. The election is almost certainly going to end up disputed, save perhaps one of the candidates wins in an unanticipated blowout. That conflict could easily lead to riots in the streets. I don't think it would end with a civil war, but that doesn't mean that things wouldn't become disastrous. Iraq is always a source of conflict, and it doesn't appear that it will cool down anytime soon. North Korea is always out there, as crazy and dangerous as ever. Iran represents a possible threat; when will their nuclear aims be achieved? What will we be willing to do in order to thwart those aims? How far are we willing to go? The Israeli-Arab conflict is always there, and shows no signs of going away. Other conflicts could flare, especially if the United States finds itself occupied with domestic problems or a major crisis in one specific spot.

    I anticipate many things, and few of them are good.

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