Events in Russia

I give it a 50% chance that the plane crashes in Russia were terrorist acts. Normally the idea of two nearly simultaneous plane crashes would leave those odds higher, but maintenance standards in Russia are likely a bit low, so it isn't impossible. Other possibilities exist, but are relatively unlikely. What is more interesting are reports about increasing tensions between Russia and Georgia. I suspect that the Georgian president is using those tensions to his political advantage, and don't expect anything to come of it. Russia's military is a shadow of what it once was, but it appears now that the worst is over, so Georgia will likely not press its luck. I wouldn't be surprised if the "trash talking" were to end after the election in Georgia. And I doubt that Putin sees anything to be gained in attacking Georgia, either.

Update:

The Discovery of explosives aboard one of the planes firmly establishes that this was a terror attack. Now the question is: how will Russia respond?