History's End

History will end only when Man does

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  • Saturday, October 16, 2004

    Polling Trends...

    Steven Den Beste is back, in a way, and leaves us with a very good post.

    Polling Info

    The trends in this are interesting. Now I trust SBD's math skills far more than mine, so I will use his data on the emerging trends. It ends up with this:

    Bush: [47.75, 48.5]

    Kerry: [45.5, 46.75]

    So, SBD provides an analysis of what the vote should be on November 2nd if you exclude 3rd party votes and undecideds. Using the bottom bracket data for both (to include the maximum number of undecided) we end up with 7% undecided and 3rd party voters. Now, I am going to pick a number out of my hat here, but I figure we will get 2-3% 3rd party votes. Lets cut it in half, and we get 2.5%. That percentage goes to all the various other candidates. Its perhaps a bit light. So round up to 3. This leaves us with 4% 2party undecided. Assuming they all vote, they could go for either candidate. But traditionally the candidate who is running against the incumbent does better among undecided voters. So lets do a 66% split to Kerry, 33% to Bush. This gives Kerry 2.666666 more percentage points, to give him 48.166, rounded to 48.2% Bush gains 1.3333 percentage points more, to give him about 49% of the vote. The Democrats must realize this. They would have to get nearly every undecided voter out there just to tie with the president on the national percentage. And now throw in the data showing most undecided voters are trending towards Bush, and you have a problem for the Democrats. A serious problem. The Democrats know that they aren't going to win the popular vote. So even if Kerry wins the electoral college, he will end up with a reverse 2000, Democrats winning the electoral college and losing the popular vote.

    If you use Electoral-Vote as a guidline for the electoral college map, then it doesn't appear good for Kerry there either. Nevada and New Mexico look to switch sides, which leave us as before. The only 2 states that look to possibly leave the Bush camp are Florida and New Hampshire. Virgiania, Arkansas and Missouri are close, but Kerry hasn't been putting time and money into those states to indicate that the Democrats think they can win them. New Hampshire isn't the big one, Florida is. But Bush is ahead in Wisconsin now, a blue state from 2000. He is close in Minnesota and Iowa. Those three states will compensate for the loss of Florida if it should go Kerry. And he is close in Pennsylvannia and New Jersey. All Bush has to do is keep Florida, and not lose both Arkansas and Missouri, and he wins. Kerry has to keep all of his states (including Wisconsin in which he is currently losing) and pick up either Missouri or Arkansas, or get Florida and not lose more than the 27 he would pick up. Bush meanwhile can make up for Florida's loss by taking Iowa, Minnesota, New Jersey or Pennsylvannia. There is a good change he will take at least one of those, and if he takes two Kerry is effectively doomed. So you have a very scary picture for the Democrats. The Democrats have to win Florida, and they know it. And Florida's legislature and executive branch are controlled by the GOP. So you have a very scary picture for the Democrats.

    Wonder now why the Democrats are willing to use election fraud?

    Update: The more I look at this, the more fascinated I get. If Kerry wins in Florida, but loses Iowa and New Hampshire, then it will be Bush with 268 electoral votes and Kerry with 270. As close as you can get. Imagine a close election in any state the Democrats won. Do you think the GOP won't challenge it? The same runs true for the Dems. This is almost certainly going to be a contested election.

    Update 2: While it is possible that Kerry might contest one or two close states if their reversals give him the win, I don't think he will do so if it requires more than that. It would simply look too much like stealing the election. And it would open him up for the GOP to sue in states that barely went to Kerry. And if Bush wins the popular vote, which trends show him to do, then he won't have the same kind of backing that Gore did in 2000. Which is why you can expect the Democrats to make sure that the dead, imprisoned, and multiple-personalitied vote.

    Update 3: Electoral-Vote now has Wisconsin back to Kerry, with a 1% lead. That much of a shift (Bush was ahead 4% last poll If I remember right) indicates there are some polling problems there. I think that it would be best to consider it tied at the moment, barring new polls.

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