History's End

History will end only when Man does

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  • Thursday, March 10, 2005


    Phase 3 Posted by Hello

    We come now to the phase wwhich I had described earlier, Phase 3, the breakout phase.
    Phase 3 is now the breakout phase, where the tentacles of freedom start spreading throughout the region. Because the fight, at the moment only ideological, is outside of Iraq, the fighting will soon migrate out of Iraq as well. Much of the fighting inside Iraq was sponsored and supported in Iran and Syria, now they will be slowly forced onto the defensive. Iraq was in itself an offensive operation, but tactically the US operated defensively after the fall of Baghdad. That is now changing. Containment has failed, and a wider war is inevitable. The only question now is exactly what that war will look like. Will Syria and Iran follow "Hama Rules?" And will the US retaliate with "Chicago Rules?"
    To expand on my earlier thoughts: In phase 3 we see the WoT expand beyond Iraq and Afghanistan in a significant way. The blue arrows indicate major efforts directed by the ideological forces that the US has unleashed with its invasion. Remember, this war is as much political and about ideas as it is military and about troops. We have seen a breakout, so far only of ideas and ideals, occurring in places like Lebanon(protests), Kuwait(protests), Egypt(possible multi-party elections) and even Saudi Arabia (municipal elections, held now after 20 years). The enemy had tried to contain the forces we were unleashing in Iraq, but that failed. Now, instead of fighting democracy and people power inside Iraq, they have to fight it in Lebanon, Kuwait, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. No longer fully hemmed in, the US and its allies are starting to get some room to maneuver, and are able to go on the tactical offense again.

    The questions arise: what will the Syrians, the Iranians, and Al Qaeda do in response to this breakout? Will they implement "Hama Rules" as my earlier post ask? And what will be the US response to their actions? Will we return with "Chicago Rules?" This phase could look radically different from the previous one, and so I can offer no accurate prediction of how it will turn out. However, I will venture the guess that it will involve both ideological and military conflict. The only question is, where, and to what degree?

    Edit: I realized that I forget to include some red arrows on all three phase posts, and am sorry about that. I don't really want to mess with the pictures at the moment, so just pretend they are there, sorry. The Phillipines, and other areas, are still a part of the WoT, though they get little media notice.

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