The Seeds of War are Sown

Austin Bay believe that a second Lebanonese civil war is on the horizon. I have trouble
disagreeing.

I cannot speak to this report’s specific points, but note my prior post arguing that Hezbollah has chosen to fight a civil war. This free-Lebanon post asserts Syria intends to fight a “small intensity conflict.” Guess what– that’s not news. Assassination, gun-toting extortion, and occasional gunfire are Syria’s m.o. in Lebanon. What Damascus intends to do is add more gunfire in the streets. If that fails to intimidate the democrats, a “third-party” (Hezbollah or other front organization) attack on the Lebanese Army is an option. The Lebanese Army is very weak.

...

Syria is pursuing a bold political strategy to set conditions for a civil war. A civil war sets conditions for a continued Syrian occupation. Freedom is in for a fight. You can bet Tehran is pulling for Damascus.

I suppose all eyes are on Lebanon now, as the WoT moves into another phase. We are starting to see what I suppose could be called phase 3. Phase 1 was the removal of the Taliban and the pacification of Afghanistan. Phase 2 was the Iraq War, leading up to the election. Phase 3 is now the breakout phase, where the tentacles of freedom start spreading throughout the region. Because the fight, at the moment only ideological, is outside of Iraq, the fighting will soon migrate out of Iraq as well. Much of the fighting inside Iraq was sponsored and supported in Iran and Syria, now they will be slowly forced onto the defensive. Iraq was in itself an offensive operation, but tactically the US operated defensively after the fall of Baghdad. That is now changing. Containment has failed, and a wider war is inevitable. The only question now is exactly what that war will look like. Will Syria and Iran follow "Hama Rules?" And will the US retaliate with "Chicago Rules?"

Malone: You said you wanted to get Capone. Do you really wanna get him? You see what I'm saying is, what are you prepared to do?
Eliot Ness: Anything and everything in my power.
Malone: And THEN what are you prepared to do? If you open the can on these worms you must be prepared to go all the way because they're not gonna give up the fight until one of you is dead.
Eliot Ness: How do you do it then?
Malone: You wanna know how you do it? Here's how, they pull a knife, you pull a gun. He sends one of yours to the hospital, you send on of his to the morgue! That's the Chicago way, and that's how you get Capone! Now do you want to do that? Are you ready to do that?
Eliot Ness: I have sworn to capture this man with all legal powers at my disposal and I will do so.
Malone: Well the Lord hates a coward. Do you know what a blood oath is Mr. Ness?
Eliot Ness: Yes.
Malone: Good, cause you just took one.

Update: I have decided to expand my thoughts on this somewhat, and have written three more posts based on the idea of the "phases" of the WoT.

Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3