Who should be VP?

Should it stay Cheney, or should Bush replace him? I am in favor of replacing him, for numerous reasons, among them health and political. The GOP, if it wants to be serious about security, needs to nominate a VP candidate who isn't likely to keel over. Also, Cheney is viewed even more negatively than Bush, and that isn't good. Someone needs to replace him, someone to keep people excited and hopeful.

RNC Coverage

Is it just me, or have the protestors at the Republican Convention recieved far more attention than those at the Democratic Convention earlier? I admit to paying less than full attention to it, but from what little I do remember I don't remember much on the protestors themselves. There are far more protestors at the RNC of course, but I think that the ratio of coverage is still off.

This may not be a bad thing for the GOP, though. As LGF has documented many times, many of these protest groups are either extremely silly or extremely scary, and may help Bush by convincing people his opponents are far less sane than they. Time will tell.

Replacing Powell

I have heard to the effect that Colin Powell was going to resign as Secretary of State should President Bush be re-elected. I think that there is a good chance that if Bush is re-elected, and Powell steps down, that Alan Keyes may be nominated in his place. This assumes of course that Keyes fails to win the Senate seat in Illinois. Keyes, as a strong conservative, will receive support from the GOP senators, and his previous diplomatic experience with the UN will help as well. The fact that he is also an American of African descent will decrease the ability of the Senate Democrats to filibuster him, although I am sure that they will try. I think that Condi will stay where she is as National Security Advisor, because she is probably the best person for the job at the moment. Any thoughts?

Negative Ads in Action

The Swiftboats for Truth people have had an effect, though I suspect it was not entirely the one intended. Polls have shown that people tend to believe Kerry was telling the truth, but at the same time are less likely to vote for him because of military service. Ironically, people who have changed their minds in this are people who have been reminded of the horrors of the Vietnam War, and that Kerry was part of that horror. Ironic, considering that the Swift-boat vets have been trying to argue that Kerry wasn't telling the truth about how US soldiers acted in Vietnam. I suspect that the effect of this will be to reduce the likelihood of pacificists voting for Kerry on election day, as they will be reminded of how he almost certainly killed people in Vietnam. Something that they may not forgive him for.

Events in Russia

I give it a 50% chance that the plane crashes in Russia were terrorist acts. Normally the idea of two nearly simultaneous plane crashes would leave those odds higher, but maintenance standards in Russia are likely a bit low, so it isn't impossible. Other possibilities exist, but are relatively unlikely. What is more interesting are reports about increasing tensions between Russia and Georgia. I suspect that the Georgian president is using those tensions to his political advantage, and don't expect anything to come of it. Russia's military is a shadow of what it once was, but it appears now that the worst is over, so Georgia will likely not press its luck. I wouldn't be surprised if the "trash talking" were to end after the election in Georgia. And I doubt that Putin sees anything to be gained in attacking Georgia, either.

Update:

The Discovery of explosives aboard one of the planes firmly establishes that this was a terror attack. Now the question is: how will Russia respond?

Najaf Peace Deal

Its not going to last, that much I can tell you. As for how long, who knows? Perhaps a few weeks to a few months, at best. I have come to the conclusion that Najaf has been turned into Iraq's first live fire training area. New Iraqi troops are being sent there to get 'blooded', in order to boost confidence and gain experience. They are then sent out to other parts of the country to maintain order. Because of their past experience, they will do a superior job then the green troops who would otherwise be stationed there. I suppose US troops could also be using this as a training exercise as well, though it is a bit less important considering superior US training. All this means that in some ways the US and Iraq have a vested intersest in keeping Najaf "open" when it comes to options. However, subterfuge on the part of US and Iraq won't be necessary, as Sadr will no doubt step up to the plate. I sometimes wonder if he is being used by the US and Iraqis as a means to "remove" some of Iraqis more problematic Shia population... though I think it more likely that he is, in fact, that stupid.

Devastation

Man, in all his hubris, could never match nature's fury throughout the whole of history, until the last century. Before then Nature could destroy empires that no army could, nature could re-shape the enviroment in a manner man could never hope to replicate, and nature could destroy all it touched with a potency that men could only dream to one day achieve. This changed forever on July 16th, 1945. Man had harnessed the power of the atom, and with it could match nature in all its glory, and all its bloodlust. At long last man had within his grasp the ability to end all life as we know it. Since the end of the Cold War we haven't put much thought into the nightmare that is Armageddeon. Yet with the proliferation of nuclear weapons that has emerged since the fall of the Soviet Union, the End is not out of sight. A scenario not unlike that envisioned in Tom Clancy's The Sum of All Fears is not impossible. Terrorists may soon, or may already, have within their power the ability to destroy a city, and therein possibly end the world. So as we watch the devestation unleashed by Mother Nature upon the people of Florida, keep in mind this is but a sample of the true horror that could be unleashed upon mankind if the genie were to be let out of the bottle, and The Second Conjecture were fulfilled. As bad as things are, they can become far worse. We are fighting against the clock, and musn't lose sight of our goals.

A Second American Civil War- Revisited

Rob at Crushing Dissent has found a post on a blog called Passionate America talking about a possible Second American Civil War. He brought up the Story of John Titor, which I had heard of before. It is a fascinating story, for many reasons. Not the least of which is the rather specific dates (in terms of years) mentioned, as well as the specific outcome of a future we can expect. I think that the story is crap, if only because Time Travel that far in the future is not plausible, barring a major physics breakthough sometime soon. What is interesting, as Bill noted, is how it talks about another American civil war, which John desribes as being between the cities and the suburbs/rural areas. In some of my earlier posts I explained how that was going to be the likely split, not necessarily North vs South, but rather city versus not city American. This isn't exact of course, rather, those will be centers of strength for the respective sides.

The real question is whether or not we are on the path towards a Second American Civil war, and if the answer to that is yes, the second, even more vital question is, can it be avoided? I am not sure about the first question, but I think that the answer to the second is no. I think that once we go down that path it can't be stopped. We are running out of compromises and out of patience. As a Nation, we haven't been so divided since the Great Depression, or possibly even the First Civil War. The reason why the Depression didn't lead to a 2nd Civil War was because the Republicans and those opposed to FDR were willing to surrender, rather than fight against their opponents. I fear that neither side is willing to surrender in this conflict, pacifistic tendencies not withstanding. As many have pointed out, the "Orthodox" have most or all of the guns, and most of the expertise in how to use them. The military is overwhelming not Leftist. So what chance does the Left have of Victory? I see none. At least, when it comes to open war. However, the "Left" can win the "slow game" , in fact, it is winning the slow game. The question is, what could cause it to become a "fast game?" I think that we may be heading on the path I have already described. That path leads to destruction. Of what, I know not. But I fear that Thomas Jefferson may prove right once again:

The Tree of Liberty shall soon be Watered.

The Truth Detected...

Earlier, in this post, I had explained that the report on DrudgeReport about a major move to revise or abolish the IRS was a Red Herring. Some didn't believe me, and the question was raised, what was it protecting? A Red Herring is nothing more than an application of Winston Churchill's famous comment that "In War, the Truth is so precious that it must be surrounded by a bodyguard of Lies." In this case the IRS move was the bodyguard. So what was the Truth? If I might make a guess, I would say that it was the name of Bush's new CIA director nominee. Once it was decided upon, a distraction was arranged so that press and Democrat attention would be focused on that, and not efforts by the Administration to gauge support for Porter.

This is just the beginning.

Blooding

The recent clashed in Iraq between Al-Sadr's goons and US and Iraqi troops sounds like a major training exercise to me, but a live fire one. It makes me think this is an effort to "blood" the Iraqi troops, to give them the taste of combat, and most especially, to give them a taste of winning, so as to build their confidence. They will need it when it comes time to clean up places like Fallujah once and for all. Sadr's goons are second rate compared to the Sunni fighters, hence it makes sense to deal with them first, in order to teach your troops the ropes so that they can handle the tougher troops later. It will be interesting to see if this effort is to merely de-nude Sadr of his personal militia, or to actually deal with him once and for all.

A Post RNC Prediction

I predict that President Bush will get no significant post-convention boost, just as Kerry has. Unlike the previous election, there are relatively few undecided voters at the moment. Thus, the odds of a significant swing in part of the population are relatively low. This could be altered, however, if Cheney were to not run in '04 and someone else ran as VP on the GOP ticket. I suspect then there might be a slight boost. Still, I don't think that it will matter as much. The election is still impossible to predict, because Kerry hasn't had the full treatment yet from the GOP. How he weathers the punches will help determine if he can pull off the victory in November.

Red Herring

I don't know if you caught it or not, but DrudgeReport recently claimed that a source revealed that there was a major push underway to disband the IRS and set up a national Sales Tax. That has come to nothing in recent days, and has thus proven to be a Red Herring. Strategic Disinformation is just as useful in politics as it is in war, which is no surprise, because contrary to what Clausewitz believed, politics is war by other means. Count on many more incidents like the one mentioned to pop up as the election looms.